Cesarewitch Handicap betting preview, free racing tips, trends and draw bias

Billesdon Brook wins the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket

The famous Class 2 Heritage Cesarewitch Handicap is run at Newmarket and is a race for three years old’s and upwards. This is a pure test of stamina, a marathon race for stayers run over an energy-sapping two miles and two furlongs. Funnily, it begins in Cambridgeshire and ends in Suffolk!

With a prize-fund of £124,500 for the winner, this is a hugely lucrative pipe-opener for many National Hunt trainers. The likes of Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson and Gavin Cromwell are looking to get their horses ready for a winter jumps campaign.

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Cesarewitch Handicap Runners

The Cesarewitch is always a huge field but we have picked out the four that currently head the betting….

Coltrane (8/1)

Trained by Andrew Balding, this three-year-old colt by Mastercraftsman has a very progressive profile and heads the betting for a good reason. He has won his last three in good style at Chepstow, Newmarket and most recently York where he made light work of the 93-rated Arthurian Fable. Soft ground is an unknown for him though and only one three-year-old has won the race in this century.

Great White Shark (8/1)

Irish handler Willie Mullins has won this race the last two years consecutively and he has another terrific chance with this beautiful grey. The six-year-old mare loves the mud so will feel right at home in these conditions. She finished 10th in this last year behind stablemate Stratum off 89 but gets in here off a lovely mark of 86 this time around. A winner of a massive handicap hurdle at Galway in testing conditions when last seen, she has to be a massive player.

Leoncavallo (9/1)

National Hunt trainers have tasted great success in this race in recent years and it is interesting that David Pipe is having a crack at the race with this horse. The eight-year-old Cape Cross gelding is rated 143 over hurdles so he could be absolutely chucked in on the Flat off a rating of 83 if you use the rule of 40 pounds method. He was a very comfortable winner on the Flat at Haydock when last seen and is rightfully at the head of the market.

Not So Sleepy (10/1)

Hughie Morrison’s eight-year-old Beat Hollow gelding was thought good enough to run in a Champion Hurdle. Things didn’t work out for the stable star over hurdles last season for a finish but he won a valuable Ascot handicap over timber on heavy going last season. He made a delightful comeback at Pontefract after a lengthy absence last month, winning eased down. A mark of 98 shouldn’t be beyond him and he is another with a chance in what is a minefield.

Of the others, Irish raider Dalton Highway has to be respected as Dermot Weld doesn’t send them across the water for a day out. Lynwood Gold is a previous course winner and arrives here off a nice weight for trainer Jessica Harrington. David Simcock’s Smart Champion has been knocking the door down in these big handicaps and it’s only a matter of time before he lands one. He is a hold-up horse and nothing will be finishing faster.

Cesarewitch Handicap Tip

It generally pays to be up with the pace in this race and has proven to be a notoriously difficult race to win if held up in rear. The horse that fits the bill is MONDAIN, a Mark Johnston inmate who will be ridden by Andrea Atzeni. This horse has only gone up four pounds in the weights for a very impressive victory at Ayr last time and still looks well ahead of the handicapper. He’s proven on ground with cut in it, will stay and should be right in the mix.

Cesarewitch Handicap Stats and Trends

  • 20/20 had an Official Rating of 83+
  • 20/20 did not run at Haydock, Goodwood or Ayr last time out
  • 20/20 previously ran over 15f+
  • 20/20 did not have their debut in Ireland
  • 19/20 were drawn no higher than Stall 25
  • 19/20 did not run over 14f or 14.5f last time out
  • 19/20 had won 1-5 Handicaps
  • 19/20 had fewer than 8 starts this season
  • 19/20 ran in a Class 3 or higher last time out
  • 19/20 never won a race off bigger than 16/1 SP
  • 19/20 ran over 7f+ on debut
  • 19/20 never won a Class 1 race
  • 18/20 had 2-5 career wins on Turf
  • 18/20 wore either no headgear or just Cheekpieces
  • 18/20 was either a filly or a gelding
  • 17/20 finished in the first 6 last time out
  • 17/20 had a top 2 finish within last 5 runs

One horse that ticks every single box as far as the trends is concerned is TRUE DESTINY. Trained by Roger Charlton and ridden by Adam McNamara, the Mastercraftsman gelding runs off a lenient mark of 86 and looks certain to run a huge race.

Cesarewitch Handicap Draw Bias

10 out of the last 18 winners of the race were drawn in Stall 13 or lower. That is not a very pronounced bias as 8 of the 18 were drawn between 14 and 25. It is more important to look for a horse that likes to be up with the pace or just off the pace in the front pack. The last seven winners have all been up near the pace throughout so the stats tell us to keep clear of the hold-up merchants. Do not back anything drawn 26 or higher.

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