Ayr Gold Cup 2021: Key trends and 25-1 tip for Ayr’s heritage handicap

Son Of Rest (Chris Hayes) and Baron Bolt (Cameron Noble) dead heat in the 2018 Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is the next in the line of incredibly competitive sprint handicaps with consolation races for those who don’t get in. In fact, it’s such a popular contest for connections, there is a consolation race for the consolation race!

Ayr will be part of a nine-race feature on ITV Racing with Newbury the other track on offer. A busy Saturday also sees cards at Newmarket, Catterick, Navan and Gowran in the afternoon with Wolverhampton racing in the evening.

As with so many of these big field handicaps, a look at the trends of the race can help to pinpoint the winner in the Virgin Bet sponsored contest. Note, a dead heat in 2018 has given 11 winners in the last 10 years.

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10/11 winners drawn 8 or higher

With 25 runners heading to post, that rules out almost 33% of the field. The only winner from a draw lower than 8 in the last decade came when the race was run at Haydock having been abandoned at Ayr.

Great Ambassador and Commanche Falls are the two who head the market at time of writing and are drawn 1 and 2. Those look difficult slots for the pair on the trends.

5/11 Balding or Ryan

For such a competitive handicap, for almost half of the last ten winners to be trained by either Andrew Balding or Kevin Ryan is remarkable. Kevin Ryan has had 29 runners in that decade however whereas Balding has had just 7. Sadly Balding’s sole runner in 2021 has been drawn in 6!

Only 5/11 ran over 6f last time out

This seems an odd stat for a six furlong sprint that less than half the winners raced over the same trip last time out. The Great St Wilfred at Ripon is the best prep race with 3 of the 11 winners coming in off the back of that race where they finished 1st, 2nd and 4th.

3/5 still entire

An interesting recent note is that geldings have lost their dominance. Donjuan Triumphant, Son Of Rest and Nahaarr were all entires when winning this race. 4/25 in the race this year are still entire.

8/11 winners ran between 22 and 35 days ago

This seems to be the sweet spot for having last raced. Again this is a negative for the favourite Great Ambassador who ran just 13 days ago. Commanche Falls, Popmaster, Just Frank, Chiefofchiefs, Gulliver, Summerghand, Bielsa and Ostilio are the only other ones in the market who are under 20/1 with Just Frank the only one of the top nine in the market to meet this trend.

Ayr Gold Cup 2021 Trends Selection

He is not trained by Kevin Ryan or Andrew Balding but Snazzy Jazzy ticks a lot of the trends boxes. Still an entire, he was last seen in action 31 days ago over 5.5f. A middle draw in 14 will give Laura Pearson plenty of options of which group she wants to put her charge into and he was a winner of the Silver Cup here in 2018 on his only prior visit to Ayr.

He will enjoy any of the showers that fall and has given some hints of late that he is capable of getting himself involved at the business end of a similar race if the cards fall right for him. This is a very tempting mark on the best of his form so he makes plenty of appeal at both the 25/1 with bet365 (four places) and the slightly smaller prices available elsewhere for those looking to add extra places into the equation.

If you back any of our selections you can watch them live on the free Racing Post app or racingpost.com. Simply log in to one of your bookmaker accounts and click ‘Watch live’ on the racecards.

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