Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle Trends

Eldorado Allen winning a Maiden Hurdle at Sandown

As we head into the first Saturday of racing in 2019 we have a decent LIVE card from Sandown to look forward to this weekend, with the Grade One Unibet Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle the headline race from the Esher venue.

The two-mile contest gives racing fans a chance to see some potential stars of the future on show and with last year’s winner – Summerville Boy – going onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, this race is often worth looking back at once the Cheltenham Festival is upon us.

The powerhouse stables of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson are always worth noting too, as between them they’ve landed this prize eight times in the last fourteen runnings – they are both represented again this year.

You can get more help finding the winner of the Unibet Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle on our ITV Racing Tips.

Plus, to help pinpoint the best winning profile of the 2019 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle we are on-hand with some key trends and statistics.

We hope they help you find the winner, but if you fancy a horse that we’ve not featured below then simply apply these stats to that runner.

Key Tolworth Hurdle Trends

13 of the last 14 finished first or second last time out
13 of the last 14 had raced in the last six weeks
12 of the last 14 priced 5/1 or shorter
12 of the last 14 aged five or six-years-old
11 of the last 14 came from the top three in the market
10 of the last 14 won last time out

Main Tolworth Hurdle Runners

Rathhill ✅✅✅✅✅✅

Elixir De Nutz ✅✅✅✅✅✅

Southfield Stone ✅✅❌✅❌✅

Grand Sancy ❌✅❌✅❌❌

Trends Analysis:

The Nicky Henderson yard have won this race five times in total and they look to have a cracking chance of adding to that this year with Rathhill. This six-year-old caught the eye on his British debut last month when winning well at Newbury in soft ground and with this being only his third career start, he should have a lot more in the locker. The Henderson camp also had many entries for this race earlier in the week so the fact they are pinning their hopes on this one tells us a lot. We saw the winner of this race last year go onto land the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival so his current quote of around 16/1 for that same race is sure to vanish without trace should he land this. Add in that he also ticks ALL six of our main trends then he looks a big player and the one to beat for us. Leading jockey, Barry Geraghty, who has won this race twice before, is a further bonus in the saddle.

Elixir De Nuit represents the Colin Tizzard yard that won this race in 2017 and being that he also ticks ALL six of our trends then he’s sure to be popular as well. He went into many notebooks back in November with a smooth win at Cheltenham and he followed that up with another success at Prestbury Park last month. With six career runs he’s one of the more experienced in the field, but will that also mean he’s prone to something improving past him? All-in-all, the stats give him a leading say but if you are looking for an angle to take him on with then it’s worth noting his two recent wins have been on good ground, plus the last time he raced in soft conditions he was well beaten.

With four wins in this race between 2003 and 2008, trainer Paul Nicholls likes to target this prize – his Noland landed the honours in 2006 and went onto take the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham too. He’s got a couple of leading chances this year with Southfield Stone one of those. This six-year-old has won his last three starts – all at Taunton – and there should be more to come. Yes, it’s hard to weigh-up exactly what he’s beaten to date, and he was sent off at 2/9 last time, but the fact connections feel he’s up to this rise in grade suggests they think he’s above average. He gets the nod on four of our stats too, but his ability to handle softer ground has to be taken on trust as those last three successes all came on good, or quicker, underfoot conditions. Looks a promising sort from a yard that love to do well in this race – we’ll find out if he can cope with the better company.

Paul Nicholls also has Grand Sancy in the race and with eleven runs under his belt then he certainly brings the most experience to the table. He’s also done well this season – winning three of his five starts and wasn’t disgraced when running fourth (of twenty-one runners) last time at Ascot in the Betfair Exchange Trophy. He’s a useful prospect but if our trends are to be believed he does have a few negatives to overcome with four of our six stats against him. Recent finishing position, his place in the market and having not won last time out are all factors he’s got to overcome. It’s also worth noting eleven of the last fourteen winners had won no more than twice over hurdles – he’s already had three successes so is another that despite having the experience might be vulnerable to a less exposed sort. The final worry would be the ground as all three career wins to date have been on a good surface – he’s raced on soft (or worse) five times and been beaten each time.

Every Sandown race covered live on ITV can be found on our Sandown Betting Tips, with runner by runner previews for each contest.

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