Shishkin Won’t Win The Supreme!

Shishkin is the clear favourite for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival after his impressive success in the Betway Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle at Huntingdon in February.

Running in the familiar Al Boum Photo colours, there seems to have been quite an over-reaction in the betting market as far as this horse is concerned. If he was trained by a smaller trainer than Nicky Henderson, he would be closer to 10/1 for the race.

Although he has been very impressive in his last two starts, the form of both races have to be seriously questioned. He beat the Skelton trained Shan Blue by about eleven lengths at Huntingdon last time, a horse that is rated 139. That would make Shishkin’s run to about a 150-151 level in my book.

Klassical Dream, winner of the Supreme last year, has a rating of 160. Of course, there is room for plenty more improvement but is Shishkin too short in the market? Yes. He hasn’t beat a good horse yet.

When you look at the form of the likes of Asterion Forlonge, Fiddlerontheroof and Abacadabras, he will have plenty on his plate. This looks a really strong renewal of the Supreme and he is going to have to be special to win it.

Stat: The last 128 horses who had their final run ahead of Cheltenham at Huntingdon have all been beaten.

This stat also has to prove very worrying for Shishkin backers. A massive 128 horses have all tried and have all failed.

It could just be a very weird statistical anomaly, yes, but equally there could also be something to it…

Huntingdon is a completely different track to Cheltenham. It is flat, easier to navigate and is right-handed. The class of competition is significantly lesser as previously mentioned which may not provide a stern enough competition to tune a horse up for the Festival. Shishkin backers, be careful!