Trends Analysis: Saturday 29th Feb 2020
With the Cheltenham Festival now less than two weeks away the weekend action does take a small dip in quality.
The bad news is that we’ve lost today’s Newbury card with a waterlogged track but we’ve still LIVE ITV action from Doncaster and Kelso.
Up at Doncaster, we’ve three LIVE races that are spearheaded with the 888Sport Grimthorpe Chase (3:35) – twelve months ago we saw the Nicky Richards-trained Chidswell take the honours and is set to run again.
The LIVE ITV action is rounded-off with one race north of the border at Kelso with the William Hill Premier Novices’ Hurdle (2:45) the main event.
As always, we’ll be highlighting our TOP FOUR trends to look for from the ITV Racing and putting them in a big-priced ‘Cracker Acca’ – plus, giving you the ‘best of the rest’ trends from around the other tracks this Saturday.
Plus – don’t forget, you can also get more help finding the winner for all this Saturday’s races on our Free Horse Racing Tips page.
TV Stats ‘428/1 Cracker Acca’
(Pays £2,140 for a £5 stake)
1.50 Doncaster: It might be worth taking a chance on the Emma Lavelle-trained FLEMCARA here. Yes, the horse was pulled up last time at Sandown, but that run came off a 245-day break so we can expect this eight-year-old to be a lot sharper for that outing. He’s dropped a pound in the ratings and is now only two pounds higher than when last winning, plus jockey Jack Tudor takes off a handy five pounds too. A stamina test and soft ground is what he needs, while the added bonus is the yard also have a decent 37% record with their hurdlers at the track.
2.25 Doncaster: With a stonking 67% (4-from-6) record with his chasers at the track, then trainer Harry Fry has to be respected here – he runs DALILA DU SEUIL. This seven-year-old gets in here with only 10st 8lbs in weight and with two JP McManus-owned runners in the race it’s interesting that jockey Barry Geraghty has picked to ride this one. A recent second at Huntingdon was a fair run looking like she not quite staying the 2m4f of late, the drop back to just over 2m looks a good move by connections.
2.45 Kelso: The Paul Nicholls yard don’t send many runners up to Kelso, but the ones they have over the years have done well. The stable boasts a decent 43% record with their hurdlers (3-from-7) at the course, so their CALVA D’AUGE catches the eye. This five-year-old heads here having won his last two and looks the sort to improve further now upped slightly in trip. The icing on the cake is Sam Twiston-Davies heading up to do the steering – he’s got an overall 42% strike-rate when riding at the track.
(Pays £2,140 for a £5 stake)
Saturday Trends – Best Of The Rest
1.50 Doncaster: The Emma Lavelle yard have a 37% record with their hurdlers at the track.
3.00 Doncaster: Trainer Noel Williams has a 36% record with his hurdlers at the track.
3.35 Doncaster: Chidswell won this race in 2019.
4.10 Doncaster: Trainer Ben Pauling has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track.
4.45 Doncaster: Trainer Alex Hales has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track.
2.12 Kelso: Trainer Lucinda Russell has won three of the last four runnings.
3.22 Kelso: The Paul Nicholls yard has a 38% record with their chasers at the track.
2.00 Lingfield: Royal Birth won this race in 2016 and 2019.
2.35 Lingfield: Trainer Mark Johnston has a 26% record with his four-year-olds or older at the track.
3.10 Lingfield: The horse from stall three has won ALL of the last five runnings.
4.20 Lingfield: Trainer Neil Mulholland has a 22% record with his four-year-olds or older at the track.
4.55 Lingfield: Trainer Seamus Durack has a 33% record with his four-year-olds or older at the track.
Every LIVE Saturday race covered on ITV can be found on our ITV Racing Tips section, with runner-by-runner previews for each contest.