Lingfield Tips and Picks 15/07/2015

As so many people have requested extra tips for Lingfield, I’ve added a pick for every race. My main tips are in CAPITALS – the rest are just picks as requested!

1.40pm – Rebel Surge at 4/1

A very tough race to start us off, with no less than 4 horses between 4/1 and 5/1 in the market in a field of 11. for this Maiden Fillies’ stakes which has an impressive turn out given only 2 year olds are eligible. I’m going with the favourite here to kick us off – she’s been highly tried, has good previous experience, and this is a much weaker race than the Group 2 she ran in last time at 100/1. Of the new comers, the one to keep an eye on would be Jameerah who is currently 14/1.

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2.10pm – Break Free at 11/2 EW

The second division of the maiden fillies for 2 year olds, and this one has a shorter favourite for Godolphin – Novantae at 6/4 who ran well enough first time out to think she should go close here. However, I’m taking her on with Break Free for equally impressive connections; she’ll improve for her first run and the ground was probably against her last time  and 11/2 seems like massive price when everything aside from the top 3 in the market are 20/1+ and it’s 3 places paid!

2.40pm – To The Victor at 14/1 EW

A low grade handicap over 6f with an open field, this is a messy race and a tricky one to analyse with all showing patchy form. Baileys Pursuit is the only horse in the race to have won previously, and that was last time out, but he’s been put up 5lb for that. I’m sticking with the unexposed To The Victor who has been outclassed in 3 maidens on the All Weather so far but could be well handicapped and may be plotted to run again at Lingfield next week under a penalty after winning here off a lenient mark.

3.10 – MUFFRI’HA at 6/5

A real disappointment that this race has cut down to just 4 runners but it promises to be an intriguing affair. The clear class horse is Muffri’ha after running 2nd behind our tip Spangled in a much higher quality race than this on the weekend and with a 3lb swing from the 2nd favourite the only thing possibly standing in his way is the quick turn out time. He’s too young and has too much potential for William Haggas to risk him for this prize if he isn’t ready so I’m trusting the trainer and think he’ll be too much for the improving Third Time Lucky to make it 4 on the bounce.

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3.40pm – Sinbad The Sailor at 25/1 EW

I like the favourite The Cashel Man here but he’s not one I’m excited to be on at 11/10 given it’s 3 places paid and a place for my pick would pay much more than a win on The Cashel Man. Sinbad has been off the track for a long time but on old form he’s well in and he impressed on his last hurdles start to win at a big price. He’ll definitely see out the trip, we know that, and George Baker’s a fine trainer who could well have him ready for this race.

4.10pm – BURNING DESIRE at 7/1 EW

Mike De Kock doesn’t have many runners in the UK, but he’s worth watching closely when he does. This is a tough Maiden stakes and while our tip carries more weight than the rest of the field he’s a year older and has the best form of the lot so far following his good 5th last time out. He’ll like the ground and given he faded last time out I’m hoping this 2nd attempt at the trip on similar ground will see more improvement to come. Connections will certainly hope so given he was bought for a massive 800,000 euros back in 2012 and has had to be gelded after an awful first run.

4.40pm – Tommys Geal at 11/4

Not the most exciting race after what could be a great contest in the 4.10, but the second favourite here looks likely to make it 2 on the bounce after his win at Brighton last time out. She’s still unexposed over this trip, and she’s only 6lb higher than her opening handicap mark despite getting a wealth of experience under her belt. The step up in trip will unlock a lot of potential from what I saw last time out and I’m expecting her to go in again here.

5.10pm – Who’sthedaddy at 5/2

The obvious pick in this race, but a good price given that’s the case. His opening mark of 52 looks very lenient now he’s run well twice, and he won easily last time out. He’s turned out quickly under a 6lb penalty for his 2nd attempt at 10f on turf, and if he runs like he did last time then this race is at his mercy. The one to watch in behind is probably Toronado Battle at 10/1 but the fact that he’s failed to win in 26 starts puts me off recommending him for the main pick.

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