Epsom Oaks Trends

Epsom Racecourse

The Epsom Oaks is one of the most important races of the year for fillies and takes place on the second day of the Derby meeting. The roll of honour includes some truly brilliant horses including Minding, Enable, Ouija Board and more. It takes a very talented filly to win this race which requires a mix of speed, stamina and heart and always produces an exciting race to watch. Without fail this race is extremely competitive and gives pointers to Royal Ascot and the Arc later in the year so is well worth studying and we will do so below with some key statistics and trends.

See our Epsom Oaks tips here or read on to see the trends for the race.

Oaks Trends

  • Not easy to predict – only 5 of the last 12 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting
  • Match fitness key – 12 of the last 12 winners had had a run within 33 days
  • Group form not key – only three of the last 12 winners had won at group level before
  • Recent winning form helps – 8 of the last 12 winners had won that season

Wild Illusion ❌✅❌❌

Magical ❌❌❌❌

Sea Of Class ❌✅✅✅

Forever Together ✅✅✅❌

Magic Wand ✅✅✅✅

It’s Aidan O’Brien’s Magic Wand, who was impressive when winning the Cheshire Oaks last time out, who comes out best in our trends. She has a progressive profile and as a daughter of Galileo should appreciate this step up in trip and only continue to improve as the season goes on.

Trends Analysis

With the absence of Lah Ti Dar antepost favouritism has switched hands to Charlie Appleby’s Wild Illusion who already has a Group 1 win to her name in the Prix Marcel-Boussac as a two-year-old when she had Magical back in fourth. She beat Musidora winner Give and Take on her debut and was not beaten far at a trip probably short of her best when fourth to Billesdon Brook in the 1000 Guineas. She looks sure to enjoy this extra yardage and it is difficult to pick too many holes in her chances though the trends aren’t in her favour.

Aidan O’Brien will likely have a few in here and the form horse of his battalion is Magical. She has had her fair share of racing and has been beaten a few times but achieved a very high level of form at two and made a satisfactory return in France this season which she will have come on plenty for. She looks bred for this step up in trip and settles well in her races so should be staying on well at the end and the extra distance could bring out improvement though she has work to do on form with Wild Illusion.

William Haggas has been cautious about the chances of recent Listed winner Sea Of Class but her owners seem keen to take their chance and she looks a fair prospect. She was backed as if defeat was out of the question on debut but ran green when it counted and was just edged out. She was then smashed in the betting for what looked a fairly decent Listed contest and duly bolted up to bolster her claims for this race. She is very inexperienced but looks hugely talented and could have a big say here.

Forever Together and Magic Wand will both advertise the Cheshire Oaks form line and both look to have fair chances of going close here. The former is still a maiden but showed massively improved form to finish second to her stablemate last time and the whole run was full of promise as she stayed on eye-catchingly when the winner had flown. The latter was a maiden going into that race but is beautifully bred and never looked in trouble as she extended away powerfully to put the race to bed in a matter of strides. Both should continue to progress and it will be interesting to see which filly Ryan Moore gives his vote of confidence to.

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