Epsom Derby Trends

Newmarket 2000 Guineas

The Derby is one of the oldest and most famous middle distance races in the calendar year and provides an opportunity for three-year-old colts to achieve greatness. This has been won in the past by the likes of Sea The Stars, G alileo and many more household names and always provides an excellent spectacle on the Epsom Downs. There are some potential stars in the lineup and each of them will be trying to bolster their future careers at stud with a win in the most important race of all from breeding perspectives. This is always hotly contested but the field can be narrowed down with some useful statistics and trends which can help us find this year’s winner.

See our Epsom Derby tips or read on to see our trends for the big race.

Epsom Derby Trends

  • Punters do well – 11 of the last 12 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting
  • Course form not key – none of the last 12 winners had run at Epsom before
  • Class is vital – 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 109 or higher
  • Preparation counts – 12 of the last 12 winners had had either one or two runs that season
  • Confirmed stamina not necessary – just 1 of the last 12 winners had run over twelve furlongs before

Trends – Key Runners

Saxon Warrior ✅✅✅✅✅

Roaring Lion ✅✅✅❌✅

Young Rascal ✅✅✅✅❌

Hazapour ❌✅✅✅✅

Masar ❌✅✅❌✅

Guineas star Saxon Warrior comes out best on the trends here and it is no surprise as his profile is almost perfect for a horse headed to this race after a flawless two-year-old season and breathtaking seasonal debut in the Guineas.

Epsom Derby Trends Analysis

The obvious starting point here is Racing Post Trophy and 2000 Guineas hero Saxon Warrior who is potentially very special and has passed every test in his career to date with flying colours. He was strong in the market before he signed off his two-year-old campaign with a game success and was equally well backed when landing the spoils at Newmarket last time despite some doubts over whether the trip would be long enough. He travelled powerfully and stayed on in a striking fashion which gave plenty of hope that he would stay a mile and a half. He is a son of Deep Impact and there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree so he should handle the step up in trip and he looks the clear form choice especially with the obvious chance that there is plenty more improvement left in him after just four runs.

Behind Saxon Warrior in the Guineas that day was Roaring Lion who was a very good second to the same horse in the Racing Post Trophy last season when looking all over the winner a furlogn out. He disappointed in the Greenham on his reappearance but can be forgiven that and looked a completely different horse when upped to ten furlongs in the Dante at York last time out. He travelled like the best horse in the race by a country mile and cut through the field to streak away from his competition and win by an easy four and a half lengths. He has work to do to reverse form with Saxon Warrior but the extra yardage looks a plus.

Another 2000 Guineas runner who could well make a bold bid to reverse the form with Aidan O’Brien’s winner is Charlie Appleby’s Masar. He dominated a decent field in the Greenham on his return from Meydan where he flopped and he was sent off favourite for the Guineas following that but could only manage third. He looks as if a step up in trip will also suit him and he wasn’t all that far behind Saxon Warrior so will likely be a threat again.

Outside of the Guineas form there are a few interesting contenders and the first of those is Chester Vase winner Young Rascal who quickly has quickly risen through the ranks since winning a Newbury maiden not long ago. Plenty went wrong for him at Chester last time in what looked a decent enough renewal of the famous Derby trial but he stayed on very stoutly to win in quite cosy fashion and is respected. The record of Chester Vase winners isn’t great in the big one but US Army Ranger won the race before finishing second in the Derby in 2016 so there’s no reason why William Haggas’ colt won’t run well though this is his biggest test yet by some way.

Dermot Weld won this in 2016 with Harzan who went on to win the Irish equivalent and he looks to have a live chance again in the same colours with Hazapour. He was beaten in an extremely hot maiden on his first start but won second time up with the useful Hunting Horn back in second. A Group 3 on his third start may have come too soon but he still ran well and he impressed when beating a couple of the Ballydoyle Derby hopes in a trial last time. He is progressingly rapidly and will have the assistance of Frankie Dettori so must be respected.

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