Epsom Derby 2020 – Betting Preview, Tips and Trends

Masar wins the Derby under William Buick

The most important classic of the season, the Epsom Derby runners will be sent on their way at 4.55pm on Saturday. A race with plenty of storylines, including the potential first Derby success for Ed Walker and Andrew Balding.

The Epsom Derby 2020

Aidan O’Brien bids to create history by becoming the outright holder of the trainer’s title for the 2020 Derby, a title he currently holds jointly with Robert Robson, John Porter and Fred Darling.

The most important classic of the season, the winner will be etched in history forever, with the implications on both the past and the future extremely prevalent. The future, because of the breeding, as the winner will no doubt become a hugely important breeder for years to come when their career has come to an end.

Epsom Derby Tip

The pick of the Ballydoyle contingent, Mogul looks primed for a big run in the Derby. A Group 2 winner as a juvenile, he looked in desperate need of the run when finishing fourth to Pyledriver in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot on his first try of the twelve-furlong distance.

He came with a sweeping run down the outside and looked dangerous until the final furlong, where his lack of race-fitness told and he was unable to make up any further ground. With that outing under his belt, and the notorious improvement of O’Brien’s horses from race to race, he could easily provide Ballydoyle with a record-breaking day on Super Saturday.

Epsom Derby Runners

The home contingent holds the advantage in this year’s Derby in terms of the market, with the talking horse English King heading off the entries for Ed Walker. Winner of the Derby Trial at Lingfield in a scintillating time, Frankie Dettori will partner the favourite in what is sure to be a potentially popular success. That said, he’s been drawn in the unfavorable stall one, which is a sizeable worry.

Kameko returned this season with a career-best effort to win the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and although that bare form perhaps sets the standard, he has stamina to prove over the Derby distance. A son of Kitten’s Joy, he’s far from guaranteed to do so given his pedigree.

Aidan O’Brien sends six to the 2020 Derby in his quest for history, with Russian Emporer one of the leading hopes. Winning the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot, he looks sure to relish the step up to twelve furlongs and looks just the type for the Derby.

Mogul was behind Kameko in the Vertem Futurity at Newcastle last season and perhaps needed the run when fourth in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, his first run over twelve furlongs. With race fitness on his side, the trip is within range, and he has the class to make his presence felt in a big way. Vatican City rounds out the strong hopes for Ballydoyle, with his running on second in the Irish 2000 Guineas giving plenty of hope that this trip is on the radar.

Pyledriver, a surprise winner of the King Edward VII, has proven stamina and the form to make a very bold bid, which entitles him to plenty of respect. Highland Chief, an impressive handicap winner at Royal Ascot, could feasibly take the step up in grade in his stride, but it certainly requires further improvement.

Epsom Derby Stats & Trends

  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won at group level
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won at least once that season
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were drawn in stall 7 or higher
  • 7 of the last 12 winners were rated 115 or higher
  • 3 of the last 12 winners were sent off the SP favourite

With just two of the last twelve Derby winners not having won a Group 3 or above prior to their Derby success, supporters of English King may be starting to sweat. A big emphasis is placed on being drawn high too, which is another negative against the early favourite, alongside the mediocre record favourites already have in the race. Class tends to prevail in the Derby too, with Kameko being the only horse who is rated above the magic 115.

Epsom Derby Previous Winners

2019 – Anthony Van Dyck (Seamie Heffernan, Aidan O’Brien)
2018 – Masar (William Buick, Charlie Appleby)
2017 – Wings Of Eagles (Padraig Peggy, Aidan O’Brien)
2016 – Harzand (Pat Smullen, Dermot Weld)
2015 – Golden Horn (Frankie Dettori, John Gosden)
2014 – Australia (Joseph O’Brien, Aidan O’Brien)
2013 – Ruler of the World (Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien)
2012 – Camelot (Joseph O’Brien, Aidan O’Brien)
2011 – Pour Moi (Mickael Barzalona, Andre Fabre)
2010 – Workforce (Ryan Moore, Sir Michael Stoute)
2009 – Sea The Stars (Mick Kinane, John Oxx)
2008 – New Approach (Kevin Manning, Jim Bolger)

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