“40/1 is a New Year’s Treat” – Owen’s Outsider tip for the Welsh Grand National

Runners set off in the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow

One of the most competitive marathon staying events of the season, the Welsh Grand National is a proper test. Run over the 3m 6f distance, it usually attracts a big field and with heavy ground more than probable, you need an out and out stayer.

After Chepstow failed an inspection over Christmas, the Welsh National has found a new date just few weeks later. We have our horse racing tips on site now, but I’ve spotted a horse at a huge price for the Welsh Grand National.

He might be a veteran, but he loves this sort of test and I think he’s capable of out-running his odds. You can find all the details below!

From Ayr to Chepstow?

Winner of the 2018 Scottish Grand National, 50/1 certainly looks excessive for Joe Farrell. Rebecca Curtis’ charge won that race at Ayr off today’s rating of 135, running well on numerous occasions since off higher marks. That includes a narrow defeat at Newbury in 2019 and a third-place in this year’s Midlands Grand National off a seven-pound higher rating.

His form in three starts this season have been below that standard, latterly when sixth in the Becher Chase at Aintree. As a result, he’s now fallen back down the ratings and sits on a very dangerous mark. That third in the Midlands Grand National is the effort to focus on, however.

He tanked into that heavy ground contest and only gave best to a runaway winner before two-out, where he kept on to press for second again late. That was a fantastic effort and it came off seven pounds higher. Although the same ground wouldn’t be ideal for him, this 3m 6f test should be.

Winning on soft in the past, no forecast rainfall is a positive and his current rating makes him impossible to ignore. This is his first real test of the campaign and if bouncing back to form, he has an excellent place chance.

Welsh Grand National Trends

9/10 – Won over at least three miles
8/10 – Aged six, seven eight or nine
8/10 – Finished top 4 last time out
8/10 – Rated 131 to 151
7/10 – Carried no more than 10st 10lb

The one who (almost) meets the trends is the favourite Secret Reprieve. Evan Williams’ charge scored over 2m 7f and 131y at Chepstow earlier this month and is aged six-years-old. He’s rated 134 and is carrying 10st 5lb, which makes him the trend’s pick.