St Leger 2021: Key trends and 33-1 tip for Doncaster’s Classic

Saturday is St Leger day, the final Classic of the 2021 flat season. There are still almost two months before the close of the turf back at Doncaster so there is still plenty to enjoy before all is said and done.

The ITV Racing cameras will of course be at Doncaster, with Chester also in action. A super card at Leopardstown plus action from Bath, Lingfield and Musselburgh round out our horse racing tips for the day.

Meaningful trends are often harder to come by for Group 1 races but we have dug deep into the records to find the most important titbits to help you find the winner of the 2021 St Leger.

9/20 winning favs

A great race for favourites between 2001-2006 with five of six favourites doing the business, four of the last ten most recently have gone in. There have been four odds on favourites in the last 20 years with two winning. Hurricane Lane will try to make that 3/5 in 2021. There have been four winners at double-figure odds in that time, 12/1, 14/1, 22/1 and 25/1 all scoring.

18/20 were in the first three last time out

Strong recent form is important, so supporters of the likes of High Definition, Scope and Lord Lucan will need their fancies to overcome this trend. 12/20 were winners on their most recent start on top of this.

9/20 has their prep race in York’s Great Voltigeur

Almost half the winners coming out of a single contest is a big trend. The second through to sixth of the 2021 Ebor meeting Group 2 all line up in the St Leger. The winner of that race is a gelding so is unable to race here under the rules of the contest. Of those nine, five were beaten at York. Two finished second and three were third. Good news for fans of The Mediterranean and Youth Spirit.

6/20 trained by Aidan O’Brien but none were bigger than 7/2

Four of the ten runners in 2021 are from the Ballydoyle yard but all are 8/1 or bigger. Five of O’Brien’s winners have been the favourite and the other was the 3/1 second favourite. Despite winning 30% of the renewals over the last two decades, the lack of a strong contender is a blow for any backers of the yard.

15/20 were a previous group race winner

More of a surprise that 5/20 had not won a group race. Ideally a prior scorer at a decent level is preferred but those who are yet to are not entirely out of it over this trip that is new for most. Six of the ten, Fernando Vichi, Interpretation, Mojo Star, Scope, Sir Lucan and The Mediterranean are yet to taste success at group level.

St Leger 2021 trends selection

Hurricane Lane ticks plenty of boxes and does look the most likely winner but he is also plenty short enough. The Great Voltigeur is the best guide to this race, with three who finish third there going on to win this race. Three winners of this race have come out of the Gordon Stakes with Youth Spirit and Sir Lucan contesting both of those races.

With 18/20 finishing in the first three last time out and Aidan O’Brien only winning this with short priced horses, the trends pick is Andrew Balding’s 33/1 outsider. Four winners have been a double-figure price in the last twenty years so there have been some shocks and Balding went close with Berkshire Rocco last year at 16/1.

If you back any of our selections you can watch them live on the free Racing Post app or racingpost.com. Simply log in to one of your bookmaker accounts and click ‘Watch live’ on the racecards.