Wednesday’s Cheltenham Festival Trends 2019

Irish trainerGordon Elliott

Today we look at the Wednesday trends for the Cheltenham Festival to see if past performances can be repeated and point us all in the direction of the winners of each or any race.

We’ve picked out 3 key trends from each race. Follow the full trends link for each race to see the full set of trends and how they apply to the field.

Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

  • 14 of the last 18 winners were priced at 17/2 or shorter
  • 13 of the last 19 winners won last time out
  • 13 of the last 20 winners had won in graded class before this race

Conclusion: With just the three horses fitting the first trend mentioned our choices are slim to start with and Brewin’upastorm gets dropped from that trio having failed to score when falling last time out, leaving a match up between Champ and BATTLEOVERDOYEN, who gets the vote thanks to the great record the Irish hold in this contest.

See the full Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle trends here.

RSA Novices’ Chase

  • 9 of the last 13 won last time out
  • 18 of the last 22 winners were Irish bred
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were seven-year-olds

Conclusion: If the trends listed are followed then the one to be on looks to be ON THE BLIND SIDE each way here. He ticks all three boxes listed and looks to have plenty more to offer with Drovers Lane an interesting alternative if handling this going following a wind operation.

The full list of RSA Chase trends are available here.

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

  • 11 of the last 14 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top eight in the weights
  • 18 of the last 24 had a win under their belt this current season

Conclusion: Obviously not the easiest race to solve but using the trends mentioned SCARPETA looks overpriced at 20/1 and won’t be far away at the finish with luck in running. Vision Des Flos is another to consider statistically and could also get involved in the finish.

All of our Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle trends can be accessed here.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

  • 14 of the last 19 winners returned at 5/1 or shorter
  • 22 of the last 34 had won at the Cheltenham Festival before
  • 11 of the last 18 ran in the Tingle Creek earlier in the same season

Conclusion: It’s all about ALTIOR whatever trends you look at and Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old is priced accordingly as he looks for his thirteenth consecutive win over fences to keep his unblemished record over fences to add to his unbeaten record over hurdles. Min is the only real danger but ought to be forced to settle for second barring mishaps.

All our Queen Mother Champion Chase Trends can found here.

Glenfarclas Chase

  • 12 of the last 14 winners were Irish trained
  • 17 of the last 21 winners came from the first three in the betting
  • 11 of the last 14 winners were aged ten or younger

Conclusion: Grand National winner TIGER ROLL could hardly have been any more impressive last time out when winning over hurdles at Navan in what was basically a prep race for this and then a try at a follow up success at Aintree. He looks better than ever and is hard to ignore for trainer Gordon Elliott though Auvergnat also fits the bill and could put in a serious challenge.

Full Glenfarclas Chase trends can be found here.

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

  • 13 of the last 13 had an official rating of 124-134
  • 10 of the 14 winners had raced three times over hurdles
  • Eight of the last eleven winners were British trained

Conclusion: Interesting to see the winners coming from lower in the weights historically and a couple look interesting at bigger prices starting with the Alan King trained PRAECEPS each-way who fits all three trends and has plenty of room for improvement after a win at Market Rasen and a good third at Kempton. He should go well as will Prabeni if he handles the softer going.

All our Boodles Juvenile handicap trends are here for your perusal.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper

  • 24 of the last 26 winners won last time out
  • 12 of the last 13 were aged five or six
  • 10 of the last 18 winners were racing in their second season

Conclusion: ENVOI ALLEN is vying for favouritism for trainer Gordon Elliott and may well have an experience edge over Irish rival Blue Sari who is a four year-old, and they have a terrible record here. Jelski could go well at a big price for Nigel Twiston-Davies but the Irish dominate this event and may well come home with all the prize money this year.

All the facts you need are here with our Champion Bumper trends ready and waiting if you are looking for further detail.

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