Tuesday’s Cheltenham Festival Trends 2019

Wille Mullins has some decent chances on opening day.

Today we look at the Tuesday trends for the Cheltenham Festival to see if past performances can be repeated and unmask the potential winners of each or any race.

We’ve picked out 3 key trends from each race. Follow the full trends link for each race to see the full set of trends and how they apply to the field.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

  • 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years old
  • 22 of the last 24 winners had raced in the same calendar year (i.e. have run in 2019)
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had run in at least four hurdles races

Conclusion: A number of horses fulfill these trends, including favourite Al Dancer. However, KLASSICAL DREAM comes out slightly on top of our full trends fulfilling all six.

See the full Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends here.

Arkle Challenge Trophy

  • 18 of the last 19 were returned at 9/1 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were aged six or seven
  • 14 of the last 18 winners won their last race including all of the last nine.

Conclusion: Two horses hit the bullseye each and every time with the Mick Channon trained Glen Forsa, and Willie Mullins’ DUC DES GENIEVRES who gets the nod with his stable winning three of the last four renewals including last season.

The full trends for the Arkle Challenge Trophy Trends are available here.

Ultima Handicap Chase

  • The last 18 winners had all won over three miles or more
  • 14 of the last 18 winners were either novices or second season chasers
  • 13 of the last 18 winners came from the top four in the betting

Conclusion: All eyes here should be on favourite Give me Copper who ticks every box and won over three miles at Kempton in November and is open to plenty of improvement after his Sandown fourth on his only start since. Up For Review is another to consider having won over three miles (over hurdles) and may be the biggest danger to the selection.

All our trends for the Ultima Handicap Chase Trends can be accessed here.

Unibet Champion Hurdle

  • 11 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 12 times over hurdles
  • 16 of the last 20 winners were Irish or Nicky Henderson trained
  • 9 of the last 12 successful were 6 or 7 years old

Conclusion: With both Buveur D’Air and Apples Jade losing out after more than twelve starts over obstacles the trends suggest this may well go the way of the Willie Mullins trained Laurina with the excellent Ruby Walsh in the saddle. Stable companion Sharjah also ticks the right boxes and could go close at an even bigger price if the rain stays away.

All our trends for the Champion Hurdle Trends can found here.

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle

  • 10 of the 11 winners were Irish trained
  • 10 of the 11 winners came from the first two in the betting
  • 9 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins

Conclusion: Willie Mullins trains the first three in the betting but favourite Benie Des Dieux looks the one with Ruby Walsh (8 from 11 in this race) in the saddle. Connections described her as their best chance at the meeting and she should prove hard to beat. Further trends for the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle can be found here.

Full trends for the Mares’ Hurdle Trends can be found here.

Close Brothers Handicap Chase

  • 13 of the 14 winners had run in the last forty-five days
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were six or seven year olds
  • 12 of the 14 winners returned at 12/1 or shorter

Conclusion: Possible favourite Riders Onthe Storm fits the three provisos listed and arrives here with every chance for trainer Tom Taafe. Fellow Irish raider Tower Bridge catches the eye in first-time cheekpieces while Highway One O One is another who could go close at a price.

All our trends for the Close Brothers Chase Trends are here for your perusal.

National Hunt Challenge Cup

  • 6 of the last 8 winners were rated 146 or above (75%)
  • 9 of the last 13 were 7 or 8 year-olds (69%)
  • 11 of the last 17 winners finished first or second in the previous race (65%)

Conclusion: Plenty fit the trends in this contest including likely jolly Ballyward but he is not the only one and the value may lie with Jerrysback at an each way price. He still ticks all the boxes but is also owned by J P McManus who has won this race numerous times and that may be what gives him the edge this afternoon.

The full trends for the National Hunt Challenge Cup Trends are here for those who like further detail.

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