‘The stats don’t lie’ – trends indicate this horse will win the King George 👑

Big race trends can often be solid indicators for which horse is going to come out on top. That being said, it’s not a perfect system as there’s no such thing as a guarantee in this game. The King George is the highlight of the Christmas racing calendar and one of the most prestigious. With this in mind, the stats don’t lie and we’ve sifted through the trends to provide a candidate to take the big-race crown. Check out our free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing.

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Age

Eight of the last 10 winners of the race were aged seven or eight. This is an overwhelming statistic with only Cue Card and Clan Des Obeaux bucking the trend. On the basis of this, we can rule out the 10-year-old Frodon and six-year-old Hitman from the nine potential runners. The most interesting candidates that fit the age range are Bravemansgame, L’Homme Presse and Envoi Allen.


Previous top-level success

Clan Des Obeaux is the only winner in the last 10 years to have not won a Grade 1 race before scoring in this. Bearing this in mind, Royale Pagaille and Eldorado Allen can be taken out of the running. Bravemansgame, L’Homme Presse and Envoi Allen are still the leading candidates so far. An honourable mention goes to Ahoy Senor who is capable of much better than we’ve seen from him so far this season.


Favourite’s graveyard?

Only four of the last 10 winners have been favourites with 12-1, 20-1 and 28-1 winners in three of the last four years. Bravemansgame heads the market at the moment and has done for a while. For this reason, we have to rule out Paul Nicholls’ leading hope, despite the trainer’s fantastic record.


Verdict

We’ve managed to whittle down half of the field, leaving us with four potential candidates. Of these four, there are significant question marks over Envoi Allen and Ahoy Senor. Millers Bank hasn’t posted efforts with high enough ratings to realistically feature here.

L’Homme Presse is therefore the last horse standing. The highest rated horse in the race, he was a star novice last season and won the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. He retains plenty of potential going into this race and the trends suggest he’s the most credible candidate.


If you back any of our selections you can watch them live on the free Racing Post app or racingpost.com. Simply log in to one of your bookmaker accounts and click ‘Watch live’ on the racecards.


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