Stratford Picks & Tips – 12th July 2015

As so many people have requested extra tips for Stratford, I’ve added a pick for every race. My main tips are in CAPITALS – the rest are just picks as requested!

2.20pm – Monte Wildhorn at 7/4

The favourite here gets a huge amount of weight from the in form second favourite. He ran well at Worcester off an 8lb higher mark than his easy win at Newton Abbot and I get that feeling that form migh tturn out to be very decent. It’s a long straight at Worcester and they want a decent pace and I just don’t think he quite saw the race out with Hawaii Five Nil having been campaigned at up to 3m 2f and just stayed on past them when the 3 at the front tired at the end.

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2.50pm – Fast Exit at 9/2

Taking on a favourite here – he was very, very well backed when winning at Newton Abbot at the end of April but he’s 12lb higher than then and he keeps running into one finishing 2nd on two weak races last two. The one I think he’ll run into today is Neil Mulholland’s Fast Exit – he didn’t jump great last time out but if he gets a clear round here this is a winnable race for him and he’s due a win over the fences soon.

3.25pm – EL MASSIVO at 3/1

An actual tip (hence the capitals), this is a nice value race for a Sunday with £12,000 in the pot and top weight Rumble Of Thunder rated 130. El Massivo is going for the hatrick today having won at Stratford last time out over course and distance (the only course winner near the top of the market today) and he still looks well handicapped. It’s a tough race but I thought he’d be shorter than 3/1 so there’s a nice bit of value and he’s been running very well on the flat and his jumping looked solid last time out which is always a worry with ex-flat horses.

4.00pm – Surf And Turf at 5/1 EW – NR

Replacement: Red Seventy at 7/1 EW

Two front runners here – My Brother Sylvest and Fair Dilemma – and this could end up being a race run at a fierce pace over near minimum distance, especially as Red Seventy likes to take a keen hold if there isn’t pace on.

UPDATE: With Surf And Turf now a Non Runner, I’m still keen to take on those at the top of the market and Red Seventy looks the next best option. He struggled with his jumping over hurdles but he seems to be giving the fences more respect and he’s put in three good runs in a row now. He’s still unexposed unlike a lot of these, get in off a basement weight at the bottom of the handicap and given he was rated 80 on the flat and 124 at one point over Hurdles there could well be more to come.

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4.30pm – Solstalla at 4/1

I thought for a while about plumping for the favourite here but the weight difference makes me go for Solstalla who gets 7lb. They’re the two clear form horses from the flat, both getting marks of 70+, and the only question is whether Solstalla gets 2m with Paddys Runner running at 1m 6f. Given the difference in odds I’m willing to take the chance, given it’s an interesting decision to take her over jumps given she’s very much flat bred but William Jarvis is no mug.

5.05pm – CAPISCI at 7/1 EW

One of my Double horses today and I really fancy the old boy to show the other old boys how it’s done. Sam Twiston-Davies rides and while it’s a tricky little contest Capisci is a horse I really like and he has a good 10lb in hand if he runs to his best like he did at Huntingdon on his last start of last year. He’s been sent off at short enough odds the last three runs, will strip fitter, and he just needs his jumping to hold up a little better and he’ll be right up there as a single mistake in his last two races that knocked the stuffing out of him really. Expect him to bounce out from the front and try to make all.

5.40pm – ALL RILED UP at 28/1 EW

A big price Each Way shot here to take on a favourite who I think is by far the most likely winner but is too short for me to want to back in a handicap with these sorts in behind. He’s flown down the weights from a three figure mark last season to just 76 and Daniel Hiskett takes off a further 3. He’s back in trip, and there’s definitely going to be a big run in at some point soon for either a massive price place or even a win, I just hope it’s today!

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