The opening two classics of the season are just around the corner. Newmarket hosts their Guineas meeting, with the colts kicking off the show on Saturday for the 2000 Guineas before the fillies take over for the 1000 Guineas on Sunday.
It’s our first real chance to see how last year’s juvenile form stacks up, while also gauging which horses have trained on, and to what degree. We’ll have horse racing tips for all the action, but it wouldn’t be the weekend without me hunting for a big double!
The Guineas provides me with the opportunity to do just that and I’m taking aim at both of the weekend features. I’ve identified a pair of horses at big prices and the double pays 272-1, find out all the details below! Queen’s Speech a NR, replaced at 12:30pm on Friday.
2000 Guineas – Lucky Vega (20-1)
Enjoying a fruitful juvenile campaign, Jessie Harrington’s LUCKY VEGA looks set to kick on over the mile as a three-year-old. He won two of his five starts last year, though that doesn’t tell half the story. Impressively winning the Grade 1 Phoenix at the Curragh in August, he was all but stopped at a crucial stage when an unlucky fifth in the National Stakes over seven furlongs behind Thunder Moon.
Tapped for toe in the closing stages back over six furlongs in the Middle Park when last seen, he should appreciate this step up in trip on seasonal return. There’s plenty of stamina on his Dam’s side and he wasn’t stopping in the National on his sole try of seven furlongs.
He’s rated third-best in the race and his form ties him closely to Thunder Moon. That rival is a quarter of his price and that helps cement the case that he’s severely overpriced. A massive run can be expected and at 20-1, his price is bordering on insulting, especially with improvement expected.
1000 Guineas – Statement (12-1)
Running to a fair standard in three juvenile starts, STATEMENT left those efforts well behind on return when second at Newbury in the Fred Darling. Sent off at 18-1, she travelled powerfully on her first try of the mile, knuckling down when ridden and losing out by a short-head to Alcohol Free.
She was ultimately very unlucky to lose out on the bob and she should come on plenty for the run, both in terms of fitness and experience. Relishing every yard of the mile, another big step forward can be expected on her second start of the campaign kept at this distance.
If this turns into a real test, as expected, it’s unlikely to suit Alcohol Free. That will help Martyn Meade’s filly to turn around the form and she’s currently double that rivals price. Her running style is perfect for the Guineas too, as she travels strongly in a prominent position. William Buick retains the partnership and she’s entitled to be heavily involved at a price that underestimates her.
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