Lennox Stakes – The Trends

Race Preview

Tuesday sees the running of the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood, a Group 2 contest run over 7f. Established in 2000, the Lennox Stakes is the feature race on day one of the five-day Glorious Goodwood meeting. Last year’s race saw the Clive Cox trained Es Que Love defeat the odds-on favourite Toormore in a thrilling finish and with Toormore again entered in this year’s race, along with a number of top trainers represented,  another competitive renewal is on the cards.

Toormore is again the current favourite for this year’s race. Trained by Richard Hannon, the Lennox Stakes will see Toormore run for new owners Godolphin for the first time. Toormore ran fourth behind Solow in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out and with a return to Group 2 company, a strong run is expected. Dutch Connection was an impressive winner of the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot before finishing a half-length second in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly last time out and the Charlie Hills trained three-year-old is clearly a horse in form. Richard Hannon has another runner in the form of three-year-old Tupi. Fourth behind Dutch Connection in the Jersey Stakes, Tupi was then a game winner of a Listed contest at Newmarket earlier this month and may well run a big race if either of the front two in the betting fail to fire. With Richard Hughes booked for the ride, and Goodwood being his final meeting before retiring, you can be sure that connections will have Tupi in fine form for the race. A win for Tupi would also be a record-breaking third victory in the race for Hughes, having won it twice before for trainer Richard Hannon Sr. The field is completed by Absolutely So, Aeolus, Ascription, Glory Awaits, Code Red Limato and Safety Check.

Key Trends

Some key trends have appeared in the race over the last 10 years and are worth focussing on:

  • 9 out of the last 10 winners had run at least twice that season
  • 8 out of the last 10 winners had won over 7f
  • 8 out of the last 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
  • No horse older than 5 has ever won the race
  • Every winner in the last 10 years has been in the top 3 of the betting

Analysing the trends for the Lennox Stakes shows us that all of the ten runners fall under the top trend of having run at least twice this season. Glory Awaits is the only runner who did not finish in the first four last time out, with seven of the remaining runners finishing in the first two last time out, highlighting how competitive an event this race is. At the age of 6, Ascription is the only horse in the race older than five-year-old. Of the remaining eight horses, Aelous and Limato have never won over 7f, leaving six horses that all fall under the four main trends – Safety Check, Absolutely So, Toormore, Code Red, Dutch Connection and Tupi. Of these, Toormore and Dutch Connection are currently the first two in the ante-post market, meaning that the trends point to the Lennox Stakes being a battle between Toormore and Dutch Connection. With very little to choose between them and both being course and distance winners, it may pay to follow the younger Dutch Connection who seems to be a horse very much on the upgrade.

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