King George VI Chase Trends 2016

A Grade 1 contested by the best staying chasers in the division, the King George VI Chase at Kempton is one of the highlights of the year and has been won by horses such as Arkle and, most recently, Cue Card in one of the races of the season back in 2015. Of course, it has also been won an incredible five times by the brilliant Kauto Star and twice by Silviniaco Conti. As always, the Road to the Cheltenham Festival awaits many of these horses who will return for its showpiece, the Gold Cup Chase. Click to read our King George VI Chase tips & preview for what is an exciting renewal of the race and follow us on Twitter for the latest news and opinions leading up to the action on Boxing Day.

• FAVOURITES DO BEST – 9 of the last 14 winners have been favourites, with only 2 favourites failing to place in those 14 renewals
• THE PRICE IS RIGHT – Since 2002 there has only been one winner of the race at a price bigger than 9/2, which was Edredon Bleu in 2003
• CLASS PREVAILS – Since 2000 every winner of the race had previously won a Grade 1 Chase
• NICHOLLS DOMINANCE – Nicholls has won the race 9 times since 1997, with 7 of those victories coming since 2006 thanks in part to Kauto Star’s record 5 wins 
• FRENCH BRED SUCCESS – 9 out of the last 10 winners were French-bred horses
• AGE CAN MATTER – 10 out of the last 15 winners were under 8 years of age

The market would suggest that this is a shootout between the stablemates CUE CARD and Thistlecrack, with the former just edging the vote in terms of trends. If Thistlecrack is to succeed, he will have to overcome the fact that he has not won a Grade 1 Chase, albeit this is his first attempt. There is no denying Cue Card‘s class and with favourites doing so well in the race, it would not be impossible to win at his age. He is the most likely winner according to the trends.

OVERVIEW

The King George is one of the highlights of the season and a very good look into the candidates for the 2017 Gold Cup at the Festival. It is no surprise to see that all winners since 2000 had previously won a Grade 1 chase. Interestingly, this would rule out Thistlecrack, Josses Hill and Roi Des Francs.

The fact that favourites do so well in the race is not that surprising when you consider previous winners, such as Kauto Star. However, it does put a damper on the prospects of all horses other than Cue Card and Thistlecrack, since the closest horse in the market to them is 12/1. Only one winner since 2002 has won the race at odds greater than 9/2.

There is only one French-bred horse currently entered which is Silviniaco Conti, therefore in all likelihood that trend will be broken this year as Conti has been struggling of late and has seen his best days pass him by. It is also unlikely that Paul Nicholls will chalk up another win against his name in the race, with his 10 year old the only entry he holds.

All of our Channel 4 racing previews will be available to read shortly, but our preview of the King George VI Chase is available to read now along with our Christmas Hurdle preview. Kempton Racecourse will host some top class action on Monday and everyone is looking forward to getting stuck in.