James Boyle’s Value Bets – 11th December

Our new horse racing tipster has picked out two selections for Tuesday’s action at Southwell.

No joy on the opening day of the column with Little Palaver being a non-runner and Restorer bumping into the well-backed Grey Britain at Wolverhampton, although he did run a cracker having shortened from 7/1 into 4/1 (more like his true price). If the handicapper leaves him alone (hard to know after pulling a couple of lengths clear of the third!), he could go one better soon but that was the perfect race for him and whether the next will contain as many exposed sorts remains to be seen.

1:50 Southwell – Archimedes – 1pt @ 3/1:

Archimedes boasts a good record at this track full stop but if you isolate his form to be purely in Class 6 handicaps over 5f, it gets a lot more interesting as he has won his last three. The most recent came in March when rated 66 and he’s now a full 6lbs lower in the weights. Granted he can be coaxed back to a similar level of form, he’s obviously a huge contender against this lot and was far from disgraced over a furlong further around here eleven days ago, weakening into fifth after showing up well for some time. I was hoping that run, and indeed his record at this level over C&D, might go under the radar and yield a bigger price than 3/1 but sadly it hasn’t! Even so, a 1pt stake will suffice and I expect a big run.

2:20 Southwell – Majestic Moon – 1pt @ 14/1:

At a price, it could be worth taking a chance on Majestic Moon. It remains to be seen whether the 8-year-old is in need of a mile these days, with his last win coming here over that trip in January, but I reckon a truly run 7f shouldn’t be a problem on this surface. Indeed, he finished second over C&D on one of his only two course runs since that win and the horse who beat him that day (Mister Music) went on to win three more Southwell handicaps over the next couple of months. It’s a sound piece of form and the selection is 7lbs lower in the weights now. I also have doubts with Weld Al Emarat at this trip and Hammer Gun can get too far back on occasion. 14/1 about Majestic Moon looks overpriced.

Results Tracking:

Running Total: -1 point.

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