Irish Derby Outsiders! Potential Big-Priced Upsets Analysed!

Japan finishing third in the 2019 Epsom Derby under Wayne Lordan

Perhaps the biggest race of the Irish flat calendar, the Irish Derby always attracts a top quality field and the same is the case on Saturday with the Epsom Derby winning Anthony Van Dyck looking to pull off the double. This race is only contested by a field of eight, but with over half the field at double-figure prices, there is a big chance of an outsider reaching the frame.

I’ve gone through the five horses at bigger priced and given my take on who I think could sneak into a place at an enormous price. For our Irish Derby tip and other horse racing tips, you can view them on site now!

Rakan (Dermot Weld)

With just four starts under his belt, Rakan is one of the potential massive improvers and is partnered by Jim Crowley for his Irish Derby tilt. He’s won two of his four starts, latterly when taking a three-runner Listed race at Leopardstown where he was no more than “workmanlike”. That said, the second gave that form a big boost when second in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot.

Even that form requires a big step forward, but given his lightly-raced profile, that couldn’t be discounted by any means, especially with his trainer being Dermot Weld.

Norway (Aidan O’Brien)

Norway has been a shade disappointing this term, given his two-year-old promise. He returned with a second to runaway Chester Vase winner Sir Dragonet, perhaps going for home too soon in the Derby subsequently. He didn’t stay the Queen’s Vase trip on his latest start, so it’s no surprise he drops in trip today.

Even his best form leaves him short in this field, but he remains lightly raced over twelve furlongs and this track should play to his strengths better than Epsom. With that in mind, a place isn’t out of the realms of possibility.

Guaranteed (Jim Bolger)

Progressive as a two-year-old, things haven’t gone as expected for Guaranteed this term, though he did return to form when landing a ten-furlong Listed race at this venue on his latest start. He was clinging on late that day and this step up in distance places huge scrutiny on his stamina. Given his inconsistent profile and heavy defeats at Group 1 and Group 3 level earlier in the year, he’s difficult to be positive about.

Il Paradiso (Aidan O’Brien)

Rated just 87, there is a very good reason why Il Paradiso is a huge price the Irish Derby. He broke his maiden at Leopardstown on his latest start on his first attempt of this distance, but that form doesn’t look up to much in this field. Needing to improve fifteen pounds to be rated equal to Rakan and he looks to have a hapless task.

Sovereign (Aidan O’Brien)

Sovereign has had his limitations exposed in 2019, finishing eight lengths behind Broome at Leopardstown on seasonal return. Falling victim to the same rival over the same course and distance subsequently, he was never a factor in the Epsom Derby, though things didn’t go his way that day.

Even if they had, you’d struggle to suggest he would have finished much better than he did and it would be a surprise if he reaches the frame, looking lowest in the O’Brien pecking order on jockey bookings.

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