Statistics and trends are not the be-all and end-all when it comes to picking winners. They can however be useful indicators and Liam Bramall has been through the last 10 winners of the Irish 1000 Guineas and found a 5-1 shot that can usurp the big favourite. Only three of last 10 winners were favourites so it could be beneficial to take on the market leader. The race takes place at the Curragh on Sunday and it’s looking like a cracking race. Check out our free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing.
Aidan O’Brien is the only trainer in the last 10 years to win this race more than once, winning it five times by himself. This suggests O’Brien’s three runners have the advantage here. Meditate looks like the better of the three but Jackie Oh is progressive and Dower House is impeccably bred. Dermot Weld, Jessica Harrington and Jim Bolger are the other three trainers with runners this year who have won it in the last decade.
This statistic is fairly damning of the chances of most of the field as seven of the last 10 winners have been rated higher than 105. Only the favourite Tahiyra (118) and Meditate (113) fit the bill so unless one of these two win, it could be a stat-buster.
Only Aidan O’Brien’s Marvellous, back in 2014 has managed to win this race in the last 10 years, having had fewer than four career starts. This rules out five of the 10 runners, including the favourite Tahiyra. Meditate is again one of the five who has had the requisite number of starts.
Meditate (5-1, Coral) fits all of the key trends which have been highlighted here. She was a little disappointing in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket last time out but seemed to need the run and there should be plenty of improvement to come. Impressively winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland in November, she knows what it takes to win at the top level.
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