“His price is far too generous” – Owen’s 25-1 Irish Grand National ante-post tip

Robbie Power & Our Duke Irish Grand National

One of the most competitive staying chases of the campaign, the Irish Grand National is always a brilliant spectacle. Won by the likes of Shutthefrontdoor, Rogue Angel, Our Duke and Burrows Saint in recent years, there have been some classy operators that have lifted the prize.

As I’m writing this, there are 69 entries into the contest. That shows you just how competitive this race will be and at 25-1, I’ve identified a horse who will relish the test. He’s always shaped like a marathon stayer and sitting on a workable mark, I’m very keen on his chances. You can find all the details below, while all our horse racing tips are on site too.

My original tip, Doctor Duffy, was declared a non-runner at the five-day stage, with the tip replaced at 6pm on Wednesday.

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Distance the key

It’s been a hugely unlucky campaign for Discordantly. He made a winning return at Galway back in October, but little has gone his way since and he deserves a day in the sun of Jessica Harrington. Running respectably in a pair of subsequent three-mile starts, he failed to complete in two further outings, with the latter in the Punchestown Grand National Trial. He had travelled powerfully up until that point and looked to be going as good as any, so there are positives to take despite the tumble.

Although his non-completions will be a negative for many, he’s actually a decent jumper, and it’s unfair to judge him on a pair of untimely incidents. His most recent outing came in the Ultima at Cheltenham, where he posted a promising sixth over 3m 1f. He was badly outpaced after three-out, but showed a great attitude in the straight and rallied bravely on the run-in. Given the way he jumped and travelled that day, it’s hard not to believe he’ll relish this marathon test.

The drying ground will see him to best effect and he’s always shaped as though he has a big day in him. Carrying just 10st 10lb, his price is far too generous at 25-1.

Irish Grand National Trends

9/10 – Carried 10st 13lb or less
7/10 – Aged seven-years-old or older
7/10 – Priced at 12/1 or bigger
3/10 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/10 – Won by the favourite

This race historically hasn’t gone well for favourites, which is no surprise given how competitive it is. Weight is another crucial factor and it’s rare for horses at the top of the handicap to be successful. Claiming jockeys can also be a big positive influence with so much emphasis on weight, so make sure to check the jockey declarations too.

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If you back any of our selections you can watch them live on the free Racing Post app or racingpost.com. Simply log in to one of your bookmaker accounts and click ‘Watch live’ on the racecards.