With 40 runners, tackling 30 of the most demanding fences over a trip of 4m 2 1/2 furlongs, then, it goes without saying, a certainly amount of luck has also been attributed to past Aintree Grand National winners.
It’s not always the best horse in the race that wins the Grand National and more often than not it’s the ones that manage to stay out of trouble and, of course, jump well and see out the distance that prevail.
Therefore, looking back at the best profiles of past heroes is always something to take into account when trying to find the Randox Health Grand National winner and you can get a more detailed look at the main trends, stats and facts on our Grand National Trends page.
Okay, there are quite a few trends to take onboard, so at some point you need to pin your colours to the mast and just focus on a handful. With that in mind, and for the purpose of finding three Grand National trend horses, I’m going to concentrate on the following stats.
– 96% (27/28): Having run no more than 55 days ago
– 93% (26/28): Aged between eight and eleven years-old
– 93% (26/28): Had won over at least three miles (fences)
– 91% (10/11): Making their Grand National debut
– 82% (22/28): Went off a double-figure price
– 68% (19/28): Had won between four and six times over fences
– 61% (17/28): Placed in the top four last time out
LAKE VIEW LAD
Trainer: Nick Alexander
Age: Nine, Weight: 11st 1lbs
We saw a Scottish winner of the Grand National only two years ago (One For Arthur) but we could get another in 2019 with the Nick Alexander-trained Lake View Lad.
This nine-year-old was last seen running a blinder to be third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival (25 days ago) and prior to that had won twice in December. That last run was made to look even better as he carried 11st 12lbs, but this time will only have 10st 11lbs to lump round.
His recent outing also came off a two and a half month break so he can be expected to have come on for it, while from twelve starts over fences this consistent sort has only been out of the top three once!
Yes, this will be his first try over this sort of a trip and over these fences, but he was staying on well over 3m1f last time to suggest it’s worth a crack and he also acts on all ground.
With ALL of the above seven trends on his side, plus being owned by Mr. Grand National – Trevor Hemmings, who has won the world’s greatest steeplechase three times, then he certainly looks to have a lot going for him.
WALK IN THE MILL
Trainer: Robert Walford
Age: Nine, Weight: 10st 4lb
This nine-year-old missed out on getting into the Grand National by a narrow margin last year – however, ahead of the 2019 race, has made amends for connections by being one of the top forty.
With many of the main trends on his side – like age, making his debut in the race, running within the last fifty days and having just 10st 4lbs in weight then, of those at bigger prices, he certainly looks very interesting.
Oh, he’s also got winning form at the track after landing the Becher Chase over the National-style fences back in December. Yes, he’s up seven pounds in the ratings since that success but he’s actually only racing off a pound higher in weight. The Becher Chase is run over a mile shorter, but he stayed on well that day in soft ground to suggest he’s worth a crack at this longer trip.
That proven experience over the fences will be a huge plus, while jockey, James Best, who rode him that day, remains in the saddle. He’s since been kept fresh with only two runs since and warmed up for this with a solid third at Exeter last month, carrying thirteen pounds more in weight.
Trainer: Sue Smith
Age: Nine, Weight: 10st 4lbs
Another for the popular Grand National-winning owner Trevor Hemmings, and he also hails from the Sue Smith yard that won the Grand National in 2013 with Auroras Encore.
This nine-year-old just missed out on getting into the race last year and at number forty-five will need at least five to come out to take his chance this time.
Hopefully that happens though, as the trends suggest he’s got a big chance with age, recent form and weight all pluses. Like the other Hemmings-owned runner, he ran in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last time (25 days ago) – running a cracker to be a close second.
Interesting, that last run was his first run back for seventy-five days, but also his first after a wind operation, which has clearly worked.
Okay, with just two career wins over fences he does fall down on not having won between four-six times, but from sixteen runs over the bigger obstacles he’s recorded a top-three finish eleven times.
Add in that he was a close third in the Scottish National last season then this is another positive – did you know, three of the last ten Aintree Grand National winners ran in that Ayr race the year before?
You can also read our in-depth antepost thoughts on our Grand National Tips page.