Grand National Trends 2019

Davy Russell and Tiger Roll win the 2018 Grand National from Pleasant Company

Despite having 40 runners, the Randox Health Grand National has actually been a very good race for the stat lovers, with many repeating trends popping-up year-after-year. Therefore, by just applying some of the key trends (see below) you’ll quickly notice many horses have a lot of factors stacked against them in their bid to win world’s greatest steeplechase on Saturday April 6th!

For example – did you know, the last 7 year-old to win the Grand National was in 1940? However, every year punters will still part with their cash on these younger horses. We’ve also seen a massive 27 of the last 28 winners having raced within the last 55 days, while 22 of the last 28 Grand National winners won carrying 10st 13lbs or less in weight.

So, let’s take a look at some key positive and negative trends to have on your radar ahead of the 2019 Aintree Grand National, plus you can also read our in-depth antepost thoughts on our Grand National Tips page.

2019 Grand National Trends

  •  Fitness First:
    96% – (27 of the last 28 winners ran no more than 55 days ago)
    A great trend to start with and one that should knock a fair few of the runners out. Having a had a recent run has been key in winning the National in recent times. 27 of the last 28 winners raced no more than 55 days ago, while 22 of the last 28 run within the last 34 days!
  • Age Concern:
    96% – (22 of the last 23 winners were aged between eight and eleven)
    Horses aged between eight and eleven are the ones to focus on, with 22 of the last 23 winners coming from this age bracket. Three of the last four winners were eight-year-olds, while you have to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last seven-year-old winner. Also, don’t be put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager – as 9 of the last 16 winners were aged ten, eleven or twelve.
  • Fencing Master:
    91% – (10 of the last 11 winners were having their first run in the race)
    Don’t worry too much if the horse you like hasn’t run in the race before. Why? Well, 10 of the last 11 winners were making their debuts in the contest, but it is worth pointing out that previous experience over the fences, in races like the Becher and Topham Chases, can help.
  • Irish Myth:
    82% – (9 of the last 11 winners came from UK-based stables)
    It was Ireland all the way last year, as they trained the first four home. However, there is a thinking that overall they do well in the race, but actually 9 of the last 11 winners went to UK-based yards.
  • Weight Watchers:
    79% – (22 of the last 28 winners carried 10st 13lbs or less)
    Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory, but make this weight your cut-off point. If you look back over winners in current times, we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more. In fact, 22 of the last 28 winners carried 10-13 or less, a stat last year’s winner – Tiger Roll (10st 13lbs) – also ticked.
  • Market Toppers:
    56% – (9 of the last 16 winners came from the top eight in the market)
    9 of the last 16 winners came from the top 8 in the betting market, indicating that, despite the competitive nature to the race, punters tend to get it right more often not. Backed up again last year with Tiger Roll winning at 10/1 (joint second favourite).
  • Who’s Your Favourite:
    22% – (5 of the last 23 favourites won)
    Considering we’ve 40 runners each year, it’s actually been a fairly good contest for favourite backers, with five of the last twenty-three (22%) market leaders winning. However, it’s worth noting the last jolly to win was back in 2010, so we are currently on a run of eight renewals with no successful favourite.
  • Current Champ:
    3% – (Just 1 of the past 35 winners had won or been placed in last year’s race)
    As most people know, the last horse to win ‘back-to-back’ Nationals was Red Rum in 1973/74, but many have tried since. The 2018 hero – Tiger Roll – will be the latest horse to try and break this long-standing trend as he’s set to try and defend his title this year. In short, the current champ has a dire recent record, but maybe this year ‘The Tiger’ can finally roll this stat into touch.


Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 28 Runnings)

· 27/28 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 27/28 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 26/28 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 25/28 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/28 – Aged 9 or older
· 23/28 – Returned a double-figure price
· 22/28 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 22/28 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
· 21/28 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 19/28 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 17/28 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 17/28 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 16/28 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 15/28 – Placed favourites
· 15/28 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 14/28 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 10/28 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 9/28 – Trained in Ireland (inc 6 of the last 13 years)
· 6/28 – Ran in a previous Grand National
· 6/28 – Won last time out
· 5/28 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 2/28 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/28 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
· 2/28 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
· 2/28 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/28 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 124 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 15 of the last 20 winners were bred in Ireland
  • Only 2 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season have won since 1961
  • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were having their first start in the race
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 9 of the last 16 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season·
  • Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 34 years (76 have attempted)
  • 20 of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

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