Get Layed – Free Horse Racing Lay Tips
Welcome to our new article – “Get Layed” – where we will give a daily horse (or two) which we don’t think will win! Laying involves offering odds that the horse won’t win – you are the bookie! If they lose, you win the stake of the bettor, if they win, you have to pay out the bettors profit.
Note: you can’t lay horses on any of the normal bookies, only on Exchanges. Betfair is the biggest and best betting Exchange with the most liquidity, so we’d recommend using them.
1:55 Musselburgh Lay – Sixth Sense at 2.98
Today’s 1:55 at Musselburgh is the curtain raiser to the start of another season of flat racing in Scotland with some excellent competitive racing on offer. The EBF Stallions Scottish Brocklesby Conditions Stakes is a maiden race for 2 year-olds and appears on paper to concern just two horses: First Bombardment and Sixth Sense.
My aim each day is to find horses which I believe are too shortly priced in the market and are worth opposing with a ‘lay’ bet and in Sixth Sense I believe I have one such sort. Why? Currently best priced at 11/8, I believe Sixth Sense’s short price relies quite heavily on the red hot form of the Mark Johnston yard. The famous green silks with red cap notched up a quick fire treble of juvenile races last weekend and Mark Johnston is a trainer I heavily respect with 2 year-olds. After a very quiet winter, he came back with a bang and I think the bookmakers are ducking the risk associated with a Johnston 2 year-old and offering you poor value.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not writing off Sixth Sense before he even makes it to a racecourse. His pedigree is certainly to be respected with a host of winners within his family, it is interesting however that all of these wins were over a distance of a mile and further. With tomorrow’s contest over five furlongs, I am starting to paint a picture of opposition to Sixth Sense.
Another factor in my reasoning against Sixth Sense is his main opponent in the field – First Bombardment. Every year I am really sweet on the form of the Brocklesby at Doncaster and this horse finished second by a nose in that contest last Saturday. The front two pulled nicely clear of the rest of the field and he was not stopping at the end of the 5 furlong trip which I think is vital for this race with a stronger test of stamina on the Musselburgh straight.
First Bombardment has the services of Josh Doyle who takes a very handy 7lbs off the back of his mount and that vital racecourse experience will surely inspire significant improvement to aid his chances. Of the rest of the field, statistics do not favour their chances in a multitude of ways which potentially reflects the double figure prices for 3 of the 6 runners. Sean Levey is a really interesting booking on Tribesman which should most certainly not be ignored and may provide a certain ounce of value against the top two.
Fundamentally, two-year old maidens with little or no form to go on put many punters off. But with the betting market very much your aide, these types of races can be profitable for you. The betting will answer expectations through drifts or contractions in pricing so I would advise a market check of Sixth Sense when entering the market in any shape or form. But with a really solid opponent in First Bombardment, I think Sixth Sense offers zero value for backers and plenty of value for layers in the opener at Musselburgh and for that reason he is my first lay bet of the day.
3:30 Musselburgh Lay – Blaine at 3.35
The second race I want to focus on today is the Borderlescott Sprint Trophy which honours one of its runners Borderlescott, still battling out sprints at the grand age of 13. This is a decent race for the time of year and features some nice prize money which has attracted some of Britain’s most hardened sprinters.
There are a couple of key features to note about this race. Firstly, five of the six runners are returning from a long winter break layoff ranging from 167 to 201 days which should instantly flag that these horses will not be at 100% fitness nor at the top of their game. The only runner without a break, Bapak Bangsawan is currently as big as 100/1 and looks completely outclassed in this company on official handicap ratings. Secondly, sprints in Britain often number a great deal of runners with races providing a lot more cover and pace. That will not be the case here with only six runners so that is something else to consider before placing your bets.
The two highest rated runners Blaine and Robot Boy (104) and (105) on official ratings respectively top the head of the market with the latter just shading favouritism. However, it is the current second favourite at the time of writing, Blaine, which I want to take on currently best priced at 2/1.
I have a few doubts regarding Blaine, the first of which being the ground. The ground at today’s meeting is described as Good to Soft, Soft in places. Blaine has never won on ground with any form of soft in the description, having won twice on good to firm and twice on good. His last run of last season was on soft so it is unlikely he won’t handle the ground, but for me it raises questions as to whether he can really perform to his best in ground described softer than good.
Secondly, Blaine appears to much prefer the summer months of the British racing calendar having only won in July and August. It is arguable that he needs his first run of the season having never placed on either of his seasonal returns so far, albeit in stronger races than this. This may also support the theory that he prefers the drier and sounder environment these months bring as opposed to the early spring season with far wetter conditions.
It is hard to know what to expect from Tangerine Trees or Hawkeythenoo off long breaks although it would be unwise to rule out a Jim Goldie runner up in the North. It is Robot Boy however that I place my faith into to at least get the better of Blaine in this contest. Although Blaine beat him by a length when the two last met, I believe Robot Boy will perform much better than Blaine in a race with little depth in numbers. Robot Boy has also been successful on a seasonal return which I think is important in a race in which nearly all of these runners will not be fully wound up.
I think today’s good quality sprint will be more competitive than the market suggests and considering Blaine appears to perform later in the season, I’ll lay him against the better claims of Robot Boy. The latter is back down in class and will probably prefer the five furlong trip far more than Blaine who prefers slightly further than five furlongs, ideally a stiff six. Therefore with trip and ground concerns for Blaine, he is my second lay bet of the day.