Falmouth Stakes 2015 – The Trends

Key Trends

Some key trends have appeared in the race over the last 10 years and are worth focussing on:

  • 9 out of the last 10 runners had run in the past 60 days
  • 8 out of the last 10 winners had previously won over a mile
  • 8 out of the last 10 winners had already won at least Group 3

Focussing on these trends, out of the current entries only Bawina and Euro Charline have not run in the past 60 days. Of the horses at the top of the market, it is of note that current favourite Lucida has not won over a mile. In addition, favourites do not have an impressive record in the Falmouth with only three winning favourites in the last 10 years – the trends appear to be against the favourite Lucida. In a wide open race it may pay to lay Lucida on the exchanges in the hope that the combined strength of the other runners are too much for her to overcome.

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Race Preview

Friday sees the annual running of the Falmouth Stakes on the middle day of the Newmarket July meeting. Run over the straight mile, the Falmouth is a Group 1 for fillies and was awarded Group 1 status in 2004. The Sir Michael Stoute trained Integral won last year’s renewal and she looks likely to make a return this year in what appears to be a wide open race.

Lucida is the current 3/1 favourite as trainer Jim Bolger looks to get his filly back to winning ways. Favourite for this year’s 1000 Guineas, Lucida finished runner-up behind Legatissimo before heading to Royal Ascot where she could only finish third behind Ervedya in the Coronation Stakes. The French trained Avenir Certain is the current 4/1 second favourite. Trained by Jean-Claude Rouget, Avenir Certain had an outstanding 2014, winning both the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks before finishing down the field in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Reappearing last month at Chantilly, she finished second to the Andre Fabre trained Fintry who is also entered in Friday’s race and is a 7/1 chance. Integral is currently 5/1 as she looks to become only the third filly ever to be a dual winner of the Falmouth, and the first since Soviet Song in 2004 and 2005.

The Clive Brittain trained Amazing Maria looks to follow-up her recent Royal Ascot win in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes and is a best price of 11/1 for the Falmouth. Of the remaining expected runners, Euro Charline is perhaps the most interesting runner. Trained by Marco Botti, Euro Charline won a listed race at Ascot last July before following up with an impressive victory at Arlington in the USA. Last seen finishing fourth behind the multiple Group 1 winner Solow in the Dubai Turf at Meydan in March. She was withdrawn from the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot and Botti will have her fresh for the Falmouth. She may well run better than her current odds of 12/1 suggest.

Get all our Channel 4 racing previews and tips for the Newmarket July meeting here!

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