Cesarewitch Handicap Trends

Nottingham Racecourse

It’s the second day of Newmarket’s Dubai Future Champions Festival this Saturday as flat racing’s HQ gets set for their third big weekend in-a-row.

Plenty to look forward to but the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap, which is billed as the second leg of the Autumn Double, is many peoples highlight of the meeting.

Run over two miles and two furlongs, it’s one of the longest flat handicaps on the calendar but before parting with your hard-earned there are many Cesarewitch Handicap tips to take into account.

Did you know that fifteen of the last sixteen winners were aged four or older, while thirteen of the last sixteen successful horses carried 9st 1lb or less in weight? Plus, with top jockey, Silvestre de Sousa, having ridden three of the last five winners then anything the pocket Brazilian rides should also be respected.

You can get more help finding the winner of the Cesarewitch Handicap on our ITV Tips page

So, to help pin-point the winner of the 2018 Cesarewitch Handicap we are on-hand with some key trends and statistics – use these to find the best profiles of past winners. We hope they help you find the winner, but if you fancy a horse we’ve not featured below then simply apply these stats to that runner.

  • 15 of the last 16 winners aged four or older
  • 13 of the last 16 winners had raced within the last two months
  • 13 of the last 16 winners carried 9st 1lb or less in weight
  • 11 of the last 16 had three or more runs (flat) that season
  • 11 of the last 16 winners finished fourth or better last time out
  • 10 of the last 16 winners were aged five or older

Trends – Key Runners

Stratum ✅✅❌✅❌✅

Limini ✅✅❌❌✅✅

Low Sun ✅✅❌❌❌✅

Southern France❌✅❌✅✅❌

Vis A Vis ✅❌✅❌✅❌

Trends Analysis:

Leading Irish jumps trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race but with three of the top four in the betting he’s got a great chance of breaking his duck. Stratum looks set to go off as the shortest of this main trio and it’s easy to see why. Yes, this five-year-old was last seen running down the field in the Ebor Handicap at York as the 3/1 favourite. However, those that saw that race will remember he got badly hampered in the closing stages and lost all chance after that. At the time he was travelling like the winner, so looked set to play a big part, while in his previous race he dotted-up in the JLT Cup at Newbury. He gets in here off the same mark as last time so with a bit more luck in-running certainly looks a player. The trends see him fall down on just two – the weight and not finishing in the top four last time out. However, as we’ve already mentioned, there was every chance he would have been in the money (at least) last time out so that negative stat can be taken with a pinch of salt. Certinaly one for the shortlist, but also probably not much value in a race with thirty-three others in.
Age: Five, Weight: 9st 7lbs, Drawn:18

Limini is another with a big chance from the Mullins camp. This seven-year-old is probably better known as a hurdler but her last two races have been on the flat when running third at the Galway Festival and then winning last time out at Leopardstown. Top jockey, Oisin Murphy, who rode her the last day, remains a positive booking, while her record on the level reads very well. From nine starts she’s won four and only been out of the first three once. She’s also won over two and a half miles over hurdles, so the trip here will be within range and of our six main trends she gets a thumbs-up on four. With 9st 7lbs to carry she’s another that has the weight stat against her but those looking for a bit of grace here will be pleased to know she won carrying 9st 9lb last time.
Age: Seven, Weight: 9st 7lbs, Drawn: 9

Next up in the Mullins army is Low Sun. Another that runs in the popular silks of Rich Ricci and, just like Limini, plies his trade over both hurdles and on the flat. This five-year-old was last seen running down the field at Bellewstown, in Ireland, but that was over a trip of just one and a half miles, which would have been plenty sharp enough for him. Prior to that he was a winner over hurdles at the Galway Festival over almost three miles so will certainly enjoy the test of stamina this contest provides. However, looking at our trends he does fall down on half of the six, with his age and having a recent run the only two real pluses.
Age: Five, Weight: 9st 2lbs, Drawn: 13

Southern France hails from another powerful Irish yard. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, who is also looking for his first win in the race. This three-year-old certainly adds a bit of class to proceedings as he was last seen running a fine third in the Group One St Leger at Doncaster and earlier this season was also runner-up in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Both those runs came over one mile and six furlongs so the big question surrounding his chance is the longer trip (two and a quarter miles). His knockers might also look at his age as being too young as he’ll be looking to become only the third three-year-old to win this race since 1991. On a plus, with 9st 2lbs he only falls outside the weight stat by a pound and being rated 107 it’s also worth pointing out he’s the highest-rated in the field.
Age: Three, Weight: 9st 2lbs, Drawn: 24

Jockey, Silvestre de Sousa has made this race his own in recent years – winning three of the last five – including the last two renewals – so anything he rides is sure to attract attention. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that when he was booked to ride the Neil Mulholland-trained Vis A Vis the money came flooding in. This four-year-old also heads into the race on a three-timer and there could be more to come. He’s up eight pounds for the latest of those wins, when getting the job done by two lengths on the All Weather at Kempton, but he had Just In Time (who also runs here) almost three lengths back in second that day. The trends see him get a plus on his age, weight and recent form, while having not run within the last two months could be overlooked with his last run only just falling outside that (sixty-six days). With just 8st 9lbs he gets in with a light-weight and once the Saturday punters see a certain Mr de Sousa riding there is every chance the money will continue to come for him.
Age: Four, Weight: 8st 9lbs, Drawn: 22

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