Betfred Mile – The Trends

The Betfred Mile is a class 2 handicap run over 1 mile at Goodwood and is due off at 3.10pm on Friday, day four of the Glorious Goodwood meeting. Won last year by the Ed Dunlop trained Red Avenger, who is entered to run in this year’s renewal, this year’s Betfred Mile is a competitive looking affair. The current favourite is the Godolphin owned Basem, winner of his last two races but with both these wins having been on good to firm, the current state of the ground at Goodwood may cause problems.

 Key Trends

Some key trends have appeared in the Betfred Mile over the last 10 years and are worth focussing on:

  • 10 out of the last 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
  • 8 out of the last 10 winners finished in first 5 last time out
  • 10 out of the last 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season
  • 8 out of the last 10 winners had contested a group or listed race
  • Favourites have won just 1 of last 10 

A number of the expected runners have not run within the past 35 days leaving only 12 horses that fall under that trend. Of these 12, only 6 finished in the first 5 last time out – Big Baz, Basem, The Rectifier, Munaaser, You’re Fired and Donchaa. From this 6, only The Rectifier, Munaaser, You’re Fired and Donchaa have run on 3 to 6 occasions this season. From these, only You’re Fired and The Rectifier have competed in Group or Listed company . You’re Fired finished 2nd in a Listed handicap at York in May and a repeat of that performance could see the Karl Burke trained four-year-old go close with the trends pointing to You’re Fired running a big race. The Rectifier is now an eight-year-old and has competed at Listed level this season but was well beaten, finishing last of 8 runners at Ascot in April and at the age of eight it’s unlikely he has the class to be competitive against younger horses on Friday. Both Donchaa and Munaaser finished placed in Class 2 handicaps last time out, with Donchaa also having winning form at Goodwood.

At present the Andrew Balding trained filly Merry Me is a reserve for the race but if she was to get into the field she also falls under all of the trends. Finishing down the field in the Listed handicap at York that You’re Fired finished runner-up in, Merry Me subsequently finished runner-up in the Ivnestec Mile at Epsom on Oaks day and then finished second in a Listed Fillies Stakes at Pontefract. If Merry Me runs, then the trends point to her performing well.

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