December trainers to follow including a 40-1 tip for the Welsh National 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 🐎

Raz De Maree - Welsh National

December is always a great month for National Hunt Racing. The King George at Kempton, Welsh National at Chepstow and the Savills Chase at Leopardstown headline some of the best action of the year. While looking for pointers for our horse racing tips this month, we have dug down into the stats to find 3 trainers to follow in the month of December.

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Nicky Henderson

One of the biggest yards in the country numerically but remarkably backing all of Henderson’s runners in December for the last four years would have produced a level stakes profit of +£52.86. That volume of profit from a massive 332 runners is a remarkable effort for a yard who clearly hit their stride at this time of year.

A 29% strike-rate over hurdles has produced the bulk of that, while banging in winners at a 24% clip is not to be sniffed at over fences either. Runners in bumpers have been 5/20 in that four year span, though in 2019 and 2020 combined, the yard were 5/11 in December with their bumper runners. It will be interesting to see if that level continues in 2021.

Sandy Thomson

A very underrated Scottish yard and one who have churned out a profit year after year in December. The last four years have seen a record of 17/74 in December for a level stakes profit of +£41.25. While it is not advised, backing Thomson’s horses blind has made a profit in each year this month from 2017-2020.

One of the most interesting runners in the stable these days is Hill Sixteen. Three of his top four RPR’s have come on soft or heavy ground, shaping well for a long way on his first run for this yard before blowing up, up the hill at Carlisle.

A mark of 132 needs a couple of pounds on it to get into the Welsh National but with entries in the Becher and Borders National this weekend he can prove his stamina and get the penalty he needs in one hit. He is a horse who has long threatened to prove he’s better than he’s shown and Thomson is the right man to get that out of him. 40/1 for the Welsh National will be long gone if he hits the target on Saturday or Sunday.

Iain Jardine

A yard who would not have many chase runners. Just ten in total the last four December’s combined but they are well worth looking out for. Four of the ten have got their heads in front for a level stake profit of +£19.50.

Jardine has a strike-rate of 16% with all of his chase runners over the last five seasons combined so better than double that in the month of December has to have him on the list of those to watch out for. Wetherby, Newcastle and Kelso are particularly happy hunting grounds for him. The first named has a two-day meeting at Christmas so is worth keeping in mind.

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