2023 King George: trends suggest punters could ‘Pyle’ into this runner at Ascot 🏇

Poet's Word wins the 2018 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes is an absolute cracker this week and it takes place at Ascot on Saturday at 3.40pm. The prestigious Group 1 looks like one of the races of the decade and as a punter we all can’t wait. With that in mind, we have gone through former King Georges and identified key pointers to help you find the winner. Make sure that you check out the Racing Post where these valuable trends were sourced for this weekend’s action!

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Age

Two years ago, Adayar achieved a remarkable feat by becoming the first three-year-old colt to secure victory in the King George since Nathaniel in 2011. Notably, he also stood as the first horse to supplement a Derby win since Galileo in 2001.

This Saturday, Auguste Rodin will be vying to join this prestigious club. He enters the race with the momentum of an odds-on triumph in the Irish Derby at the Curragh.

It’s worth noting that in the last five editions of the King George, four of the winners were aged five or older. However, in the previous 18 runnings from 2000 to 2017, the titles were dominated by three-year-olds and four-year-olds.

Form

Postponed achieved a significant milestone by securing a Group 1 victory in the 2015 King George, breaking a streak where nine out of the past ten winners had already tasted success at the highest level before claiming the title.

Interestingly, the last ten winners had all prepared for the race with an impressive top-three finish in their preceding start. Among them, six contenders entered the race with the added confidence of a recent triumph.

Distance

The last ten King George champions all demonstrated prowess over the 1m4f distance, and an impressive eight among them had already claimed victory in a Group 1 race at this same distance.

Conversely, Luxembourg has not achieved a win in the 1m4f category, as evidenced by his seventh-place finish in the Arc, which remains his sole outing at this distance.

Draw

In recent editions of the King George, a middle-to-high draw has shown favouritism, as eight out of the last ten winners were allocated stalls three to eight.

Conversely, the lowest two stalls have not yielded a winner in the past decade. Runners from stall one have recorded the following form figures during that period: 434456054, with no representative in 2020.

Rating

Out of the last ten King George winners, eight of them boasted an official rating of 119 or higher at the time of their triumphs. On average, the winning horses had an official rating of 121.

Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide River, with a rating of 116, would potentially become the lowest-rated King George winner since Taghrooda in 2014.

Verdict

King Of Steel, who finished as the Derby runner-up, is yet to secure a victory at the highest level. Interestingly, the six-year-old Hukum is attempting to make history as the first horse of that age to clinch the race. Swain and Enable, on the other hand, are looking to replicate their victories from a year ago.

Auguste Rodin, a three-year-old colt, might face a challenge given the not-so-strong track record of his age group, especially among Derby winners. Additionally, stablemates Luxembourg and Adelaide River have not tasted success over the race distance.

After careful consideration, the shortlist is narrowed down to Emily Upjohn, Desert Crown, and Pyledriver. All three horses show promise according to the trends. However, the preference is for last year’s winner, who won his prep race, a trend followed by six of the last ten winners.

If you back any of our selections you can watch them live on the free Racing Post app or racingpost.com. Simply log in to one of your bookmaker accounts and click ‘Watch live’ on the racecards.

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