2021 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: Runner-by-runner guide and myracing verdict

Enable winning the Arc

It’s going to be an historic day in Paris on Sunday, as Longchamp stages the 100th renewal of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. A race that brings together the best equine talent the world has to offer, that rings especially true in this year’s renewal.

A truly remarkable field has assembled for the 2021 renewal. Adayar, Hurricane Lane and Tarnawa head the British and Irish challenge, while Chrono Genesis and Deep Bond’s participation makes it a truly international contest.

We’ve analysed all fifteen runners in this historic renewal of the race, so if you’re struggling to pick the winner, look no further than below.

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Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-by-runner guide

1 – Torquator Tasso (Rene Piechulek, Marcel Weiss) * 

German challenger who landed the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden last time. Not beaten far by In Swoop in the 2020 German Derby, which is interesting form, but this would demand a sizeable step forward.

2 – Deep Bond (Mickael Barzalona, Ryuji Okubo) * *

First of the Japanese challenge, posting a career-best effort to win the Group 2 Prix Foy over course and distance last month, defeating Broome. Stayed 1m 7f in Japan, so would need this to be a test, and he’s opposable on balance.

3 – Broome (Yutaka Take, Aidan O’Brien) * 

Gained a deserved Group 1 success at Saint Cloud in July, but subsequent defeats to Adayar in the King George and Deep Bond in the Prix Foy suggest he’s likely to struggle in this field.

4 – Tarnawa (Christophe Soumillon, Dermot Weld) *****

Superstar mare who is a three-time Group 1 winner, including wins in the Prix de l’Opera Longines and the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Unbeaten in two visits to Longchamp, that track experience will be crucial and she was unlucky not to down St Mark’s Basilica at Leopardstown last time; cast iron claims.

NON RUNNER – Love (Frankie Dettori, Aidan O’Brien) ***

15:05
Longchamp
Love silk

Love

Five-time Group 1 winner who has been disappointing since winning at Royal Ascot on return, soundly beaten by Adayar in the King George. No excuses in two subsequent defeats at York and the Curragh; would need her very best to come out on top.

6 – Raabihah (Cristian Demuro, Jean-Claude Rouget) ****

Finished fifth in last year’s Arc, despite the race not panning out in her favour. Started 2021 in disappointing fashion but her latest Group 2 win at Deauville was much more like it. Needs a career-best to win this, but she’ll be suited by how the race unfolds and the ground is in her favour; each-way shout.

7 – Chrono Genesis (Oisin Murphy, Takashi Saito) ****

Went within a neck of Mishriff in the Sheema Classic at the Dubai Carnival and gained a third top-level success in the Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin last time. Dominant at her best, but this will be the first time she encounters softer ground, which has to be a small worry; each-way claims all the same.

8 – Mojo Star (Rossa Ryan, Richard Hannon) **

Just the sole win to his name, but he’s run to a very high standard in defeat at pattern level. That includes a gutsy second to Hurricane Lane in the St Leger last time and he’s entitled to take his chance in this. That being said, he’s held by the principles and is likely to fall short of the frame.

9 – Baby Rider (Ioritz Mendizabal, Pascal Bary) *

Group 2 winner earlier this term but then suffered heavy defeats at Group 1 level, latterly to Hurricane Lane in the course and distance Grand Prix de Paris. Should be outclassed back at this level.

10 – Adayar (William Buick, Charlie Appleby) *****

Caused a shock when landing the Derby two starts ago but proved that was no fluke by powering away with the King George at Ascot last time. He’s already proven on a softer surface and it remains to be seen just where his limitations lie. On all known form, he’s the one to beat.

11 – Hurricane Lane (James Doyle, Charlie Appleby) ****

Outstanding three-year-old who arrives on the back of three Group 1 victories, winning the St Leger on his most recent start. A course and distance winner on very soft ground, he’s battle-hardened and won’t be outstayed in this contest. William Buick prefers Adayar but he’s afforded maximum respect.

12 – Sealiway (Franck Blondel, Cedric Rossi) **

Impressive Group 1 winner over seven furlongs last year and matched that form when second to St Mark’s Basilica in the French Derby in June. Seemingly relished a step up to ten furlongs on that occasion, but he’s far from guaranteed to stay this new trip. Even if he does, he’s likely to fall short of placing.

13 – Alenquer (Tom Marquand, William Haggas) **

Defeated Adayar when landing the Classic Trial at Sandown back in April and followed up with victory at Royal Ascot. No match for Hurricane Lane and Mishriff subsequently, but he will at least love conditions and could feasibly place if the pace falls apart in the closing stages.

14 – Bubble Gift (Gerald Mosse, M Dezangles) *

Beaten nearly ten lengths by Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris and his nose victory over Baby Rider isn’t strong form in the contest of this race; readily opposed.

15 – Snowfall (Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien) ***

Ran away with the Epsom Oaks and followed up with further Group 1 victories at the Curragh and York before a 1/5 defeat in the Prix Vermeille over course and distance. That was disappointing, but it’s an effort that can be forgiven and she certainly won’t mind the softer conditions; has to be considered.


myracing verdicts

Adrian Wall – Tarnawa

If she runs her best race and has a clear untroubled run, Tarnawa wins the Arc, it’s that simple folks. And I would absolutely love to see the gentleman that is Dermot Weld win the race this year too. He deserves it.

There was no disgrace in losing to St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes this month. She was badly hampered by the winner who has since been retired and O’Brien went on record stating he was arguably Ballydoyle’s best ever horse. Bold statement.

Tarnawa had the perfect prep for this race and Soumillon can steer her to victory sporting the famous silks of Aga Khan.

Owen Goulding – Raabihah

She was a shade disappointing in three starts to open 2021, but she got things back on track with a dominant victory in a Deauville Group 2 last time, relishing a return to twelve furlongs.

She remains totally unexposed over this trip and the rain has come just in time, as she’ll relish the softer surface. She’ll have to do things the hard way, but the race should play out to suit her closing style and when those up front start to falter, she’ll be staying on best of all.


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