'Don't write her off' - 33/1, 25/1 and 12/1 ITV outsiders for Aintree and Sandown
22 hours ago
The trends tell us this 33/1 shot has a huge chance in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
A field of 18 has been declared for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday and it should be a cracker. The Group 1 event is Europe’s richest race and easily the biggest event in French racing. With such a competitive field, we have loads to consider when trying to pick the winner.
We’ve got you covered and have looked at some of the key trends over the last decade in order to narrow down the shortlist. These trends suggest a French-trained filly has a massive chance of coming out on top. Take a look at our free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing.
Age
Seven out of the last 10 winners have been aged four or five. Three-year-olds have come out on top the other three times but the recent trends suggest older horses have the advantage. It’s worth noting that this isn’t a huge obstacle to success but it should be considered.
Recent form
Eight out of the last 10 winners managed to win their last start going into the race. This is obviously a symptom of the fact that the race is of such a high standard and is quite telling. Only eight of the 18 runners managed to win last time out and that does cut the contenders down significantly.
Draw bias
Single-figure draws seem to be a significant advantage as all but three of the last 10 winners were drawn low. Golden Horn managed to win from stall 14 back in 2015 and any horse drawn wider than that can probably be crossed off the list.
Trends verdict
Quisisana won the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville last time out and the five-year-old fits the age profile nicely. She is set to come out of stall seven and there will be no excuses from there. There’s certainly some each-way value there and a big run can’t be ruled out.
If you back any of our selections you can watch them live on the free Racing Post app or racingpost.com. Simply log in to one of your bookmaker accounts and click ‘Watch live’ on the racecards.
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