4.30pm Newmarket Tips & Betting Preview 13/04/2016

IN SUMMARY: More complicated than it looks at first glance but surely at the prices CUSTOM CUT (9/1) is superb Each Way value? He has the benefit of a recent run to put him straight and has good enough form to win this regardless, and although he does has to give weight away, he is the class act and certainly looks overpriced.

1 CUSTOM CUT (9/1)– With over half a million pounds in prize money this seven year old gelding owes connections nothing but seems sure to add to that tally this season. Looked as if the run would do him good when only third to Belardo on his comeback run and seems sure to be involved but has to give weight away today which is the only issue we can see.

2 SOVEREIGN DEBT (9/1)–  Ultra consistent sort who has finished in the first four home in his last eleven races so one for the each way players perhaps. He has won in this class and has fitness on his side after two runs on the all-weather but may prefer a quicker surface to be seen at his best these days.

3 AIR PILOT (5/2) – Well in at these weights on official ratings he has a good season in 2015 with a win at The Curragh and two good runs at Longchamp and Ascot.  Trainer Ralph Beckett is in fine form already this season and he has own on soft going so all positives except for his poor price.

4 BATTLE OF MARATHON (25/1) – A pretty decent handicapper who was a good third behind Secret Brief and Bravo Zolo in the Lincoln but isn’t really up to this class on that form, and ought to struggle to live with some of these today hence his price 

5 BOSSY GUEST (40/1)– Failed to sparkle when tried in decent races out in Dubai and hard to fancy on what we have seen so far this season. Will be race fit unlike some but is some way short of the required level needed to win this, and seems more likely to be an also ran than finish in the first three.

6 BRONZE ANGEL (25/1)– Best in big field handicaps where his record is second to none but this is a different kettle of fish and he ought to prove to be outclassed as will others. Yard without a single winner this season as we write from very few runners which has to be a concern, and good as he is we can’t see a victory this afternoon though a place at a big price remains a possibility.

7 CALLING OUT (20/1)– Theoretically holds Custom Cut on Doncaster running but he did have a fitness advantage that day and that form should be reversed here. Three wins from nineteen starts fails to impress, while David Simcock is without a winner in the last two weeks meaning we can afford to let him run unbacked today 

8 DECORATED KNIGHT (12/1)– Very lightly raced for a four year old with just the six starts and very much open to further improvement. Moved from the Roger Varian yard to Roger Charlton the change of scenery can improve them considerably on occasion, though Mr Charlton is known for his patient attitude and there is every chance he is not 100% wound up for his return today, though it may be worth watching the betting accordingly to see if he is strongly fancied or not.

9 DUTCH CONNECTION (9/2)– Ran some superb races last season headed by a win in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot but tries further than a mile for the first time today. If he gets the trip he would be the most likely winner based on his form behind the likes of Gleneagles, though we note again the Charlie Hills yard are not among the winners of late.

10 MAHSOOB (7/1)– Always held in some regard by trainer John Gosden at home in Newmarket he didn’t let supporters down with wins at Kempton, Newbury, York, and Ascot before trying his luck in higher grade. He did come unstuck in Group class twice when well beaten but is a late developer and may be stronger as a four year old.

11 TULLIUS (9/1)– Andrew Balding’s eight year old would have every chance at his best but sadly at the age of eight he looks to be going backwards. He will be race fit after runs at Lingfield and Saint-Cloud, not beaten too far last time out, but ought to find others with a bit more to offer today.

myracing Forecast Prices: 9/4 Air Pilot, 5/1 Dutch Connection,8/1 Mahsoob Tullius, 10/1 Custom Cut Sovereign Debt , 14/1 Decorated Knight, 25/1 Battle Of Marathon Bronze Angel Calling Out, 50/1 Bossy Guest