Nunthorpe Stakes Trends 2018

The Group One Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the feature sprints on the horse racing calendar and staged on the third day (Friday 24th August) of the four-day York Ebor Festival in August.

Run over the flying five furlongs at York racecourse this really is a ‘blink and you’ll miss it’ contest that over the years has been won by some very quick horses. Split decision thinking by jockeys can be the difference between winning and losing in this fast-run affair, while if you like your trends it might pay to know six of the last seven renewals have been won by a filly or mare.

Trainer Michael Dods has won the lucrative prize twice in the last three years so anything he runs should be respected. At this stage he’s got the four-year-old – Mabs Cross – in the race. It’s also a race that has no real age trend with the last eleven runnings being won by horses aged between two and seven years-old!

Our Nunthorpe Stakes Tips can help you find the winner of the race.

To help pin-point the winner of the 2018 Nunthorpe Stakes we are on-hand with some useful key trends and statistics – use these to find the best profiles of past winners.

We’ve picked out six standout stats and applied these to the main 2018 Nunthorpe Stakes runners. We hope they help you find the winner, but if you fancy a horse we’ve not featured below then it might also help to apply our trends to that runner.

• 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top four last time out
• 14 of the last 16 winners had won over 5f before
• 12 of the last 16 winners had run at York before
• 12 of the last 16 running were NOT won by the favourite
• 11 of the last 16 winners were previous Group race winners
• 6 of the last 7 runnings were won by a filly or mare (female horse)

Trends – Key Runners

Battaash ✅✅✅❌✅❌

Blue Point ❌✅✅✅✅❌

Finsbury Square ✅✅❌✅✅❌

Mabs Cross  ✅✅❌✅✅✅

Judical ✅✅✅✅✅❌

Trends Analysis:

After Battaash’s four-length romp in the Group Two King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out then the horse nicknamed the ‘Batmobile’ is going to be all the rage here. This Charles Hills-trained four-year-old was raised to a rating of 127 after that recent success and that new mark now sees him seven pounds clear of his nearest rival – Blue Point. The trends suggest he’s got a decent chance too as he ticks four of our six. Being the favourite for the race then this might be classed as a slight negative as we’ve only seen four market leaders land the prize in the last sixteen years. Those against him might also gain hope that he was beaten in the race last year (four lengths), but since that defeat he’s won three of his four starts and based on his increased rating is certainly a horse that has improved over the last twelve months. With six of the last seven Nunthorpe winners a female horse he’s also needs to overcome this stat and, in the process, give three pounds away to any fillies in the race. However, he’s still well ahead on the official ratings and after the scintillating display we saw at Goodwood last time out then he’s still going to be hard nut to crack.

Blue Point is the only horse to have beaten Battaash this season, after getting the better of him in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot back in June. There was just under two lengths between the pair that day, so a case can certainly be made for this Godolphin-owned four-year-old. However, he’s since flopped as a beaten favourite (seventh) in the July Cup at Newmarket so of the main trends does fall down on not having finished in the top four on his most recent starts. Having said that, he does get a thumbs-up on four other trends and was an impressive winner of the Gimcrack Stakes at this meeting twelve months. He’s bounced back from poor runs in the past and the pure fact he’s beaten the hot favourite over this trip already this season means he can’t be ruled out.

Finsbury Square could add a bit of international interest to the race. This French-based six-year-old was last seen running a fair fourth – beaten just under five lengths – behind Blue Point in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. Based on that he’s got a bit of ground to make up but prior to that run was a good runner of Group Two Prix du Gros-Chene at Chantilly on soft ground. Therefore, even though the weather looks good for York this week, if the forecasters do get it wrong and the ground gets softer his chance must surely improve. He ticks four of the six main trends, with only having never run at York and not being a filly the ones against him.

Mabs Cross represents the Michael Dods yard that have a fantastic recent record in this race – they landed the pot twice in the last three years. Being a filly then she’ll also get a handy three pounds weight allowance from the boys. The two recent Dods-trained Nunthorpe winners were also won by a filly (Mecca’s Angel), while it’s certainly been a race that supports ‘girl -power’ in recent years as six of the last seven winners were fillies or mares. Their four-year-old is closely-matched with the likes of Blue Point and Battaash too after running third to that pair (beaten two lengths) in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. She’s lightly-raced with only eleven career starts so there should be more to come and has only been out of the first three twice. Champion jockey – Silvestre de Sousa – has been booked to ride and of those at bigger prices she’s certainly one that catches the eye.

Finally, Judicial is a horse that also ticks a lot of the main trends – with not being a filly the only possible negative based on recent runnings of the race. This six-year-old heads here in form too after winning his last two races – the most recent the Group Three Coral Charge at Sandown. From nineteen career runs on the turf he’s won nine (47%) but would have to prove himself at this much higher level. Being rated 109 he does have eleven pounds to find with Blue Point and is a staggering eighteen pounds adrift of the hot favourite Battaash.

Every York race covered live on ITV can be found on our York Racing Tips page with runner by runner previews for each contest.