4.25pm Newbury Tips & Betting Preview 18/09/2015

Race Time4.25pm MeetingNewbury Day:  Friday 18th September Distance: 7f
Full Race Name Dubai Duty Free Cup (Listed Race) Class One

Just the nine runners set to go to post here but no easier to solve nonetheless with not one of them a winner last time out which makes life tricky! Looking back though past runnings and not one trainer with a winner in the past decade is represented here today! To our amazement, Frankie Dettori, who won the race on Scarf in 2012 for Godolphin, is actually the only jockey to have won the race over that period, so we will start with his mount this afternoon, and the William Haggas trained Hathal. Three year olds have won the race five times out of ten so no need to discount the son of Speightstown who ran a decent enough race last time out when runner up to My Dream Boat in a York handicap. Funnily enough he looked to be running on over the mile that day so the step back to seven furlongs here is an interesting call, and one we aren’t so sure will be successful? Brian Meehan’s Montalcino is always the bridesmaid, never the bride this season with four places from five races, the last two in Group Three company so this represents a step down in class which may well be just what she needs. If we ignore her seasonal return at Ascot, she has since finished runner up to the highly regarded Crystal Zvezda at Newbury (over ten furlongs), runner up again to Blond Me at Sandown (over a mile), third in a Group Three at Goodwood to Amy Eria (over seven furlongs), and most recently fourth to Nakuti when beaten a length or so in the Group Three Atalanta Stakes back at Sandown, and back over a mile once again. Whether you feel her form is one of a horse that just can’t get past whoever is in front and happily settle for second or worse, or that she has form in better races and is the one to be on here is hard to call and we will be awaiting the betting before drawing our own conclusions. Marsh Hawk is another three year old filly, this time trained by Richard Hannon and with no chance whatsoever according to the handicapper, yet she is also the solitary course and distance winner in the field, which is what brought her to our attention. Sadly, that win was as a two year old last season, and on Good to Soft going when she bolted up by three and a half lengths from John Gosden’s Timba, and was also the last time she passed the post at the head of affairs. Four losses this season seriously suggest she may have failed to train on from two to three, which is a real shame, though this certainly appears to be her trip and she may, just may regain her best form this afternoon – though only the Hannon team would know exactly how.

Looking at the figures, Hugo Palmer trains the best horse in the race in Ascription, though he still appears to be a little short of his best. After finishing fourteenth of eighteen in a valuable Ascot handicap in October 2013, injury saw him miss the whole of the 2014 season before reappearing at York in mid Amy this year when unsurprisingly needing the run. Two decent races since have seen him finish half a length second to Cable Bay in the Group Two John Of gaunt Stakes at Haydock and then less than two lengths fifth to Toormore in the Group Two Lennox Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, in both races meeting trouble in running, without which he would surely have finished at least a little closer? He does have to give weight to his younger rivals which could be his undoing today, but on pure form he certainly looks to be the one they all have to beat – with William Buick tasked with steering him to the front when needed. Lastly, Brendan Powell was a jockey we used to follow over the jumps and is now a trainer we take an interest in as well, and he runs Dark Emerald this afternoon who has each way chances. Yet another runner prone to placing with a second at Haydock last time out following a second to Kodi Bear at Salisbury, he did win a couple at Meydan earlier in the season and has been coming down the weights ever since but may find one or two a bit quick for him again today, but a place most certainly beckons.

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