2.10pm Carlisle Tips & Betting Preview 13/09/2017

A field of 14 go to post for the first race of the day at Carlisle on Wednesday. See our betting tips and full race preview below.

IN SUMMARY: The consistent HAVANA STAR can confirm that he’s on a good mark after only finding one rival too good last time out after getting first run. After winning on debut Kevin Ryan’s gelding has run with credit on all starts since and with the headgear now tried he looks the most likely winner of this class 5 nursery.

2 HAVANA STAR – Made a winning debut for Kevin Ryan back in May, has run with credit in three starts since and connections reach for the headgear to eke out a little more improvement today. He kept on well on handicap debut to finish second, though he had every chance to go by inside the final furlong. He won’t need to improve much for the headgear to win this under Kevin Stott though and looks like a big danger if being perked up by the aids.

3 LUCKY LUCKY MAN – Improving with experience for Richard Fahey, making his final maiden/novice start when second at Carlisle in August. That was on good to soft so the ground is of little concern; the main worry would be his opening mark of 71, which is hardly a gift based on his previous runs. He’s an each way player for top connections, but may find himself falling short in this.

4 DIAMOND DOUGAL – Got off the mark at the fifth attempt for Mick Channon in a weak looking nursery, pushed out to win under hands and heels. He now has a penalty to defy in a deeper contest under Graham Lee, but Channon’s do tend to improve for their racing and he couldn’t be dismissed as he seemed to handle softer ground earlier in his career. Each way claims, but he looks likely to find at least one too good under this penalty.

5 ADMIRAL ROOKE – Showed a fair level of ability in his first three runs for Michael Dods, finishing third on Nursery debut at Thirsk when storming home inside the final furlong. He was unsuited by the step up to the extended seven furlong on his latest start at Beverley and a return to the stiff six furlongs could suit him as he handles softer ground. Cal Rodriguez takes off five pounds and he’s a key player.

6 BAHUTA ACHA – Best effort thus far from five came when he was second at Ripon in May and that was over the seven furlong trip on good to firm ground. He was always behind on his nursery debut at Ripon nine days ago and, with the softer ground unlikely to suit, he’s best watched here under Luke Morris.

7 SKYVA – Showed a similar level of ability in his maidens for Brian Ellison in the summer, last seen at Southwell keeping on at the one pace into third after being outpaced early on. On that evidence he should suit the return to six furlongs, however a mark of 63 on nursery debut doesn’t see him obviously well treated. Improvement would be no surprise, but others are higher up the list today.

8 MABO – Sliding down the weights for Richard Fahey after three poor efforts in nurserys since showing a good level of ability in maidens. He was slowly into stride and always behind when seventh of eight at Hamilton on his latest start. He proved on debut that he handles soft and he’s three pounds lower here, so he looks like an interesting each way contender if stepping up his game.

9 ACROMATIC – Makes his nursery debut on the back of one good novice run, with the two efforts either side of it being very poor. He kept on well in that six furlong Novice Stakes at Thirsk in June to be beaten only two lengths, with the ground similar to today. It was a shame not to see the same on his latest start, but he has been gelded since and has the blinkers on for the first time. If the market speaks in his favour then he’s one to consider at a bigger price.

10 RYEDALE ENCORE – Daughter of Canford Cliffs who didn’t improve for the switch to Nurseries on her latest start at Musselburgh, showing good early pace before weakening out of things in the final furlong. She should be happier at this sort of trip as she shows good early speed, though the softer ground is a big unknown and she does need to show improvement upped in class. Outside each way chance but that is all.

11 EXCELLENT TIMES – Made her handicap debut at Thirsk on her latest start, keeping on under pressure to snatch that position late on. That was an improved effort from her maidens and she does remain with potential to do better off of the same mark, but this is a more competitive race and she does need to show further improvement. Each way claims under Andrew Mullen but she looks vulnerable for win purposes.

12 THE AULD HOOSE – Showed some promise in novice races for Richard Fahey but nothing that gives much hope that he’ll be winning any time soon. He kept on the same pace when only fifth here over five furlongs on his latest start and his previous efforts at six and on softer ground give little hope for him here. He’s in good hands and off a low weight on nursery debut, but others are far more interesting.

13 FASTALONG – Showed something to work with in her first two starts for Tim Easterby but her nursery debut was less than successful, weakening rapidly when asked for an effort. That was in a higher class but she was beaten out of sight that day and didn’t offer much hope for the future. She’s five pounds lower here but makes very limited appeal.

14 LADY SANDY – Cost £40,000 as a two-year-old for Richard Barron and this daughter of Dandy Man is capable of much better than she showed in her first three runs. She wasn’t beaten far on her first two runs when staying on late and, although she was never involved on her latest start, she should be much happier tackling nurseries. Barron does well with these types and she looks sure to make her presence felt.

Non runners:

1 TOUGH REMEDY – Has shown promise in four novice runs for Keith Dalgleish, though he isn’t improving and needs to find some progress. He was last seen finishing second at Ayr, well clear of the third and he’s been gelded since, making his handicap debut off a mark of 77. That is by no means harsh and this softer ground will be of no concern for him. Rowan Scott takes off five pounds and he should take all the beating here.

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