2.30pm Newmarket Tips & Betting Preview 23/09/2016

A quick look at the records shows us that both John Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute have won this twice in the last ten years though be warned, there have been winners at odds up to 20/1 (Spirit Of Dubai in 2009), as well as five favourites and a joint favourite. This year the Gosden team are represented by Journey (13/8) who won the race as a three-year-old last season but has to carry a bit more weight in 2016.  Robert Havlin rode her last season to a very easy eight length success and she arrives her in good form again after winning a Group Three at Haydock back in May and she must have every chance under Frankie Dettori this afternoon though her four-month absence needs to be built in to her price if she is to represent any kind of value even dropped back in to Listed class.

Looking at the early prices and there certainly seems to be plenty of value in the price of Pandora (20/1 Each Way) who is trained by the very shrewd David O’Meara and seems massively overpriced. Her form includes two third places in Listed class at York so we know she is up to this standard with her one and three quarter lengths placing behind Abingdon and To Eternity in the Galtres Stakes perhaps the best of them especially when you consider she was badly hampered AND failed to get a clear run at a crucial stage of the race. Although only seventh last time out in a similar race at Chantilly she was only beaten two and a quarter lengths at the line and a repeat of that may well be enough to see her come home in front this afternoon.

Sir Michael Stoute has a less exposed option in Shall We (9/1), a daughter of Dansili out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. Her only win so far from five races was a Salisbury maiden over a mile and a quarter, but she was only beaten three lengths in fifth behind Even Song at Royal Ascot in the Group Two Ribblesdale Stakes and would have a serious chance if able to repeat that effort. Sadly, she has disappointed in her only contest since when sixteen lengths seventh of nine when she failed to let herself down on the quicker going but if she gets the good ground predicted she could yet bounce back to her very best here this afternoon.

As mentioned earlier Robert Havlin rode the winner last year and this season it looks like he will be on board Lady Of Camelot (12/1) as John Gosden seems most likely to take her place in the final line up. Her only win so far was in a Leicester maiden over a mile and a half which she followed with a length and three quarter fifth of six to Endless Time in the Lancashire Oaks before a four length fifth in Listed class and although she receives weight from her elders she does look as if she has a bit more to find if she wants to get involved in the finish.

To round things off for now, Luca Cumani last won this race in 2011 with Mohedian Lady and has chances again this season with Beautiful Morning (6/1) who is another long absent from the race track. Her three races last season included a maiden win from Very Talented at York and a fifth to Minding in the Group One Fillies Mile at Ascot after which she was put away to mature and strengthen over the winter. She reappeared at Newbury in May when a neck second to the highly regarded We Are Ninety after which it looked all systems go for a crack at the Oaks but sadly it wasn’t to be and she hasn’t been seen since. Whether she would have got anywhere near to Minding at Epsom is open to question of course but if she run here this afternoon we should at least get a good idea as to whether she really deserved her place in the classic line up.