Swinton Hurdle Trends

A total of 17 runners will line up for tomorrow’s Grade 3 Swinton Hurdle at Haydock Park (3.25), the feature race of Channel 4’s weekend coverage. Have you considered who you think might take home the top prize in tomorrow’s 2m handicap? Check out our trends and see what you should be looking for in a Swinton Hurdle winner!

Let us know on our various social media pages if you’ve spotted a trend that we have missed or if you have your own method of profiling potential Swinton Hurdle winners. Oh, and use the link at the bottom of the page to check out our betting tips and preview!

Betting Trends

Evan Williams and Paul Moloney have dominated this race in the past couple of years, securing their first victory in 2013 with Barizan and regaining their title with Ballyglasheen a year later. The latter is back to defend his title this year and will be ridden by Moloney again. A further win for the jockey would see him become the race’s leading rider. Williams also saddles the 152 rated Court Minstrel.

Trainer Martin Pipe was a four-time Swinton Hurdle winner though there has been a couple of dual victors in recent years. With Williams dealt with, Nicky Henderson saddled Eradicate to victory in both 2010 and 2011, the last horse to succeed in claiming back-to-back Swinton Hurdles. The Lambourn handler is without a runner this year. Another two-time victor without an entrant this time around is Richard Fahey, he earning himself the top honour in 2003 (Altay) and 2009 (Joe Jo Star).

Ballyglasheen’s success in 2014 heralded the first four-year-old winner for 14 years. Similarly, there has not been a triumphant entry aged older than seven since nine-year-old Dreams End in 1997.  Dreams End is also notable for setting a precedent for Eradicate in being the handicap’s first ever dual winner (1994, 1997). In the period between four-year-old winner Mirjan in 2000 and Williams’ horse last year, five winners have been aged five; four have been six-years-old; and a further four have been seven-years-old.

Eradicate’s follow-up success in 2011 was the last time that a charge carrying top weight had been able to finish first past the post. Whilst only five of the last 15 winners have carried a burden of 11st or greater, half of the last six have successfully triumphed with such an allotted weight.

Donald McCain’s Red Merlin was the last winning favourite in the Swinton Hurdle at a price of 13/2. The then seven-year-old managed to complete this feat back in 2012. Only he and Blue Bajan (2008) have managed to secure winning favourite status in the last 10 years. Whilst this might not be a stunning record for market leaders, it is worth remembering that five of the last 10 have made the top three and it might be worth backing the favourite should it be at a big enough each-way price.

Make sure you check out our tips for the weekend as well as our betting previews by selecting this link!