Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends

The Supreme is the opener of the Cheltenham Festival and kicks off the incredible week with the well-known roar heard all around Prestbury Park. The Supreme isn’t always the easiest race to predict but the field can be narrowed by down by using trends and statistics of recent renewals and that is what we will help you do here, check out our Supreme Novices’ tips here.

Supreme Novices’ Trends

• Favourites can struggle – 10 of the last 12 favourites have been beaten
• Certain ages dominate – the last 9 winners have all been either five or six years old
• Mullins is mustard – Willie Mullins has won the race five times since 1995
• Recent wins are key – 17 of the last 19 winners won their previous start
• Betfair busts – none of the last 10 Betfair Hurdle winners have won this
• Moscow Flyer a good trial – the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle has produced two winners and a second in the last four years

Trends – Key Runners

Getabird ❌✅✅✅✅✅

Mengli Khan ✅✅❌✅❌

Kalashnikov ✅✅❌✅❌❌

Paloma Blue ✅✅❌❌✅❌

Duc Des Genievres ✅✅✅❌✅❌

Sharjah ✅✅✅❌✅❌

Claimantakinforgan ✅✅❌❌✅❌

Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh are a formidable duo in this race especially when the owner is Rich Ricci and that team, who won the race with Douvan and Vautour before finishing runner up with Min are represented by Getabird here. He arrives off the back of a win in the race won by stablemates Douvan and Min as well as the late Vautour. He fits plenty of our trends and looks a likely candidate despite the poor record of favourites.

Trends Analysis

It’s impossible to ignore the claims of Getabird who was a good bumper horse before his injury and has followed in the footsteps of some brilliant Mullins horses on his way to Cheltenham, he was mightily impressive in the Moscow Flyer when jumping very slickly and putting the race to bed with ease, the Irish contigent is always strong and the Mullins camp will be keen to take this after the reverse of Melon last year. The horse he beat in his last start, Gordon Elliott’s Mengli Khan, had looked a horse of some potential before jinking and running out in a Grade 1 when going well and he looks to have plenty to do to turn the form around with the Mullins trained horse.

The Betfair Hurdle has been a pretty poor trial for the Supreme over the years and last year was no different with joint favourite Ballyandy finishing well beaten and that doesn’t bode well for the chances of Amy Murphy’s Kalashnikov. He was an impressive bumper winner who has flourished over hurdles and has a lofty reputation despite a reverse on heavy ground in the Tolworth. He didn’t travel with any real zest last time but stayed on strongly in dire conditions to win and has a rating of 154 now which puts him right in the firing line. The Betfair looked a taxing race however and he hasn’t got a huge amount of time to recover but if getting to the Festival in the same form he has to have a fighting chance.

Harry Fry’s If The Cap Fits has been ruled out of the festival and Samcro has now officially been aimed at the Ballymore which leaves the Supreme with a more open complexion and one that appeals at a slightly bigger price is one who ran a decent race behind Gordon Elliott’s stable star in the the Deloitte and that is Paloma Blue. He has done nothing but improve so far over hurdles having finished second to the brilliant but ill-fated Fayonagh in a Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown last year, he was very keen in the Deloitte but was travelling every bit as comfortably as Samcro before the second last when he began to empty. He may be suited by a better pace and if settling would certainly be interesting as would Duc Des Genievres who stayed on powerfully past him into second that day though may be aimed elsewhere.

Others who disappointed last time but are interesting on earlier pieces of form include Sharjah who looked a certain Grade 1 winner before coming to grief at the final flight and was expected to give Samcro a race in the Deloitte and Claimantakinforgan who was beaten at Musselburgh but Nicky Henderson insists is much better than he showed that day.

For previews, tips and more content head over to our Cheltenham Festival tips section.