Grand National stat: here’s why you should consider this 33-1 runner at Aintree 📊

Sam & Robert Waley-Cohen

Robert Waley-Cohen bought the Emmet Mullins-trained Noble Yeats for this year’s Randox Grand National and his son Sam will ride the horse at Aintree next Saturday in the showpiece event.

The father-and-son team won the 2011 Gold Cup together with Long Run and have a superb record over the National fences. Oscar Time came close to giving them the biggest race of all when finishing second to Ballabriggs in the 2011 Grand National.

Waley-Cohen is a very shrewd buyer so the fact he bought this horse means he feels he must have a live chance. Noble Yeats, who is only a seven-year-old so is a young horse, is a 33-1 chance for the race.

The leading owner said: “It’s possibly a year too early but you have to seize the opportunity when you can. Racing is all about dreams and you’ve got to be very lucky to win all of those big races.

“Noble Yeats has the right profile. He’s an improving young horse who gets three miles and could well get further. He will stay with Emmet until at least the end of the season.”

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Sam Waley-Cohen stats over the National fences

The Grand National fences and course is a unique test and it is rather rare and unusual for a trainer or jockey to have a terrific strike-rate over them. Nonetheless, we have done some digging into Sam Waley-Cohen’s record over these fences and it is quite remarkable.

For an amateur rider, it makes it even more remarkable that Waley-Cohen has six winners, four seconds and two thirds from just 32 rides over these fences. That also means that he has finished in the first three no less than 12 times from those 32 rides, producing a level stakes profit of £37.33.

Basic math will tell you that because of these statistics, Noble Yeats looks an overpriced horse at odds of 33-1.

Sam Waley-Cohen’s Grand National record

2007 – Liberthine – 5th @ 40-1
2009 – Ollie Magern – Fell @ 66-1
2011 – Oscar Time – 2nd @ 14-1
2013 – Oscar Time – 4th @ 66-1
2014 – Long Run – Fell @ 14-1
2015 – Oscar Time – 15th @ 20-1
2016 – Black Thunder – Pulled up @ 50-1
2017 – The Young Master – Fell @ 20-1
2021 – Jett – 8th @ 80-1

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