The queen of racing Enable has won over the hearts of the public in the past few years. Little did we think a horse wearing the famous Abdullah colours could gain such affection since Frankel’s spell of dominance.
There is no doubt that the general public tend to bet with their hearts. Enable will certainly have plenty of support on the betting front for the showpiece in Longchamp on Sunday the 4th of October.
I wrote a piece last year stating Enable would not win the Arc and got a good bit of backlash for it on social media platforms. I knew that was coming given the stature of the horse and the fact most people could not see her being beaten in 2019.
Well, I will certainly take no glory in being right on that occasion. We all have our own views and they should all be respected. I more times than not get things wrong, that’s why I’m not on a beach in the Bahamas now.
However, my opinion remains the very same for the 2020 renewal of the race. I simply cannot see Enable winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe this year. It will be a much more difficult assignment than last year.
Please don’t for a second think that I have an agenda against the horse given the fact that I absolutely adore her. I went up to the Curragh to watch her win the Irish Oaks. To my delight, I forked out quite a lot of money specifically to go and watch her win at the Breeders’ Cup too.
I bet with my head though so let’s go through the five main reasons why I think Enable will struggle….
Three-year-old fillies have an unbelievable record in the Arc. Recent winners such as Enable, Treve and Zarkava won the race since 2008.
Many try to argue that her form isn’t the best in terms of the horses she has swept aside to date. There is no doubt the calibre of opponent she will face in Paris will be of a higher standard. However, it is the manner of her victories that really gets the juices flowing.
Love will be getting all the allowances which even Aidan O’Brien argued can give three-year-old fillies too big an advantage. It will be hard to see Enable giving lumps of weight to a runaway 1000 Guineas, Epsom Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks winner.
A six-year-old has never won the Arc. Period. Motrico won the race as a seven-year-old back in 1932 but this is a huge trend to buck if the queen is to win this race.
It would be a ridiculous thing to rule her out completely just because of her age of course. Things all come back to the allowances that the younger horses receive. It is extremely difficult to concede weight to top class younger horses.
Some have tried and they have all failed. Heck, Enable tried last year. Winning a race of this stature is an extremely difficult thing to do once, never mind twice.
In more recent times, the last horse to try to win the race three times was Treve who was an incredible mare. She won the race by five lengths in 2013, beat 19 runners in the race to land the double in 2014 but was well beaten in 2015 when sent off odds-on only to be defeated by Golden Horn (finished 4th).
Although it was her first run of the season and John Gosden hinted at the fact she was not 100-per-cent, Enable looked very laboured when toppled by Ghaiyyath in the Coral-Eclipse on her return.
She clearly needed the run, of that there is no question, but she was beaten two and a half lengths and was in receipt of three pounds from the Godolphin superstar who might also take part in this race. She has to improve a lot to reverse the form with him, never mind any other runner in the race.
Yes, she was impressive on her two outings at Ascot and Kempton since, but what did she beat? Sovereign who has gone on to prove his Irish Derby win was a complete fluke, Japan who has been a bitter disappointment since his days as a three-year-old and a bunch of nobodies in the September Stakes.
The Enable fans will argue different but for me there is no question that Enable got pretty lucky to win the race in 2018. She had the dream draw in stall six whereas James Doyle, who was drawn out in the car park aboard Sea Of Class in stall fifteen had to sit and suffer.
Sea Of Class lost two to three lengths at the start and that is being conservative. She intentionally missed the break a fraction and was dropped out in rear but she flew home like a rocket and got turned over by a flared nostril.
If Enable wins the Arc this year, it has to be up there with one of the greatest achievements of all time in my opinion and if she does manage to pull it off, nobody will be more happy for her and connections than I will.