2.40pm Warwick Tips & Betting Preview 04/11/2015

Race Time: 2.40pm Meeting: Warwick Day: Wednesday 4th November 2015
Distance: 2m Full Race Name: Weatherbys Diary Novices’ Chase (Class 3)

We do love the jumping season with high quality horses appearing every day of the week and this Novices’ Chase at Warwick certainly fits the bill with some high quality prospects. This race was won last year by Vibrato Valtat so it certainly takes some winning.

There were originally a large number of entries for this but one by one they’ve disappeared and we’ve been left in just four in what could well be one of the trickiest four field contests you’re ever likely to see! The field are all between 6/4 and 6/1, have had at least 200 days off the track (in fact two have had over 600 days off the track) and not one has jumped a fence in public before.

Our tip for the race is Aso, who we’re hoping can keep Venetia Williams’ excellent run going after her 3 winners over the last 2 days (from her last 3 runners too!) He was a very likeable type over hurdles, winning three of his hurdles starts so far as well as a bumper in France two years ago as a three year old. He reeled off four good performances from November onwards last year culminating in a win at Haydock in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle by four and a half lengths, and while he shaped eye catchingly well at Cheltenham in the County Handicap Hurdle off 138 he just didn’t get home. He was able to quicken on Heavy ground at Haydock nicely and we think conditions here should suit him nicely.

Ballyalton is one of the two running from a lengthy break here, nearly two years after we last saw him at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival when he finished second behind Faugheen. According to Ian Williams he suffered a “minor injury” but there was “no point in taking risks”. Putting him over fences was always the plan and we’re excited to see him back on the track. He’s been installed at 6/4 favourite which is surely mostly based on the fact that he was the best hurdler in the field based on his second behind Faugheen but he does have a tendency to take a keen hold and after 602 days off that’s not an ideal attribute.

Willow’s Saviour is the other running after over 600 days on the track – 683 to be precise – last seen when winning The Ladbroke handicap hurdle at Ascot in December 2013 off 130. That was a likeable win given how easily he did it and how competitive the race was and he’s always looked a chaser but at 9/4 it’s still a guess at how much of his ability he retains. Ballybolley is the last to mention, the outsider of the field but still just 7/1. He’s struggled in strong races, including the Betfair Hurdle, and doesn’t have the same level of form as the others over the smaller obstacles. He ran in Point to Points as a 4 year old, finishing 2nd, 3rd, and falling when challenging two out, but he was also a Grade 2 bumper winner at Aintree with horses like Aqalim and Ordo Ab Chao  in behind him. His inconsistency over fences worries us and he’s another who likes to take a hold.