3.25pm Chepstow Tips & Betting Preview 09/01/2016

3.25pm Chepstow Saturday 9th January

Free Tip: Otago Trail at 13/8

Race Details

Race Time: 3.25pm Meeting: Chepstow Day: Saturday 9th January 2015 Full Race Name: coral.co.uk Best Price Guaranteed On Horse Racing Handicap Chase Class Two

Betting Preview

Overall today we have avoided the favourite, but in this case it is hard to see past Otago Trail (7/4), the only last time out winner in the field and very much on an upward curve. An eight year old son of Heron Island and related to numerous other winners, he won at Exeter in early December over this trip and on heavy ground when last seen in action, regaining the lead after being passed by Mon Successeur to go on to win by three quarters of a length with the rest of the field twenty-two lengths and more in arrears. With the runner up hacking up at Ascot next time out and then racing off a mark of 145 at Cheltenham, our selection looks thrown in off of 141 and seems to be the one they all have to beat.

Looking for serious challengers and it looks to us as if Colin Tizzard’s Fourth Act (4/1) could be the one for the forecast with Brendan Powell (junior!) booked to ride. The seven year old has been a model of consistency over fences (if we ignore his first run when last at Exeter), with a win and a second (plus a fall at Newbury when looking as if he still had an excellent chance), and with so little experience looks sure to continue learning and improving this season and maybe beyond. He stays further and handles heavy ground which may prove invaluable, and if anything goes wrong with the jolly, he looks the most likely to take full advantage.

Relatively local trainer Evan Williams will be well supported by the on course punters and will be looking to go one better with Going Concern (13/2) who finished second to Pearls Legend at Cheltenham last time out, beaten a length off a mark of 129 but put up five pounds for winning £5544 second prize money. He is yet to try this sort of trip after nineteen races in total (bumpers hurdles and chases), and with none of his relatives winning over further either, we have to be concerned, though you can never be sure until they try, of course.

Rouge Et Blanc (12/1) deserves a mention, if only because trainer Oliver Sherwood is having a great season, though it would take a career best effort for him to win as he races off of 130 today and is yet to win off of higher than 122.  He did win two races ago at Newbury in a decent looking race, but that form gives him no chance with Otago Trail, and we cant be backing him here regardless.

Lastly, we do like a dark horse now and then and we note that Fayette County (7/1) wears a hood for the first time this afternoon and wonder if that could wake his ideas up? Trained by Tim Vaughan, he has only had the three starts over fences, running well at both Kempton and Newbury before falling on both occasions, and then finishing fourth (but only beaten a length) behind Whispering Harry at Taunton. He jumped a lot better that day and may have won if put in to the race a little earlier, and although we would have to take his fitness on trust after close to a year off the track, if there is a surprise, he may well be the one to provide it.