Saturday ITV Outsiders: Adrian fancies a monster 80-1 upset in the 2,000 Guineas 😱

Newmarket 2000 Guineas

The first classic of the season is nearly upon us and it is shaping up to be a cracker. Can Native Trail justify his short odds in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket Racecourse? Or is he another Pinatubo who disappointed on the day? We don’t have long to find out. Make sure you check out our free ITV Racing tips on the website. Adrian has picked out four horses running live on terrestrial TV who should outrun their massive odds on Saturday.

1.50 Newmarket

Tactical (12-1) has been off the track 244 days which has to be a slight worry and has had wind surgery since last seen but if he reproduces some of his best form he should defy top weight here with Ryan Moore in the plate. He loves it around here, successful in the Windsor Castle here and also a Group 2 winner at the track. Went well fresh in the past.

2.05 Thirsk

Only 2lb higher than when successful at Ayr over the extended 7f last September, Redarna (25-1) is very versatile with regard to ground so conditions won’t be an issue. There should be plenty of early pace on here and he should be able to track them and make his challenge in the closing stages.

2.40 Goodwood

Khatwah (20-1) is a progressive filly trained by Mick Appleby who already notched up her fourth career win at Doncaster last week. She has been kept busy, finishing second in a Nottingham handicap four days ago, just not getting the run of the race. This is a step up in class for her but she is clearly thriving at present.

3.40 Newmarket

Native Trail is all the rage and rightly so but is no price at around even money so we are taking a chance on Andrew Balding’s Berkshire Shadow (80-1). This horse won the Coventry at Royal Ascot last season and was second in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood when stepped up to 7f after that.

The winner of that race Angel Bleu is a dual Group 1 winner since and he gave him 3lb on the day. He was an eye-catcher in the Dewhurst when fourth to Native Trail at the end of last season, staying on really well in the closing stages after racing wide in rear and the step up to a mile should bring out further improvement. He might get a place.

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