Owen’s Outsiders: 33-1, 28-1 and 20-1 Friday ITV racing tips

Owen's Outsiders

Friday marks the start of the best time of the year, the National Hunt season! As much as I still love flat racing, I’ve been waiting for the return of the jumps for months now, and I’m hugely excited for Chepstow. There are a pair of races from the venue on ITV4‘s coverage, which has a whopping nine races in store for us.

The feature meeting, despite Chepstow, is Newmarket, with the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile heading a brilliant card. There’s also a pair of competitive handicaps from York, so it’s a day of racing that everyone can appreciate. We’ll have horse racing tips for every ITV race, including a NAP of the Day.

Given a very successful summer, it’s been a disappointing few weeks of outsiders to bring the curtain down on the flat. These runs happen, however, and I’ve selected three big prices for Friday who can hopefully run some big races. Find all my analysis below!

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3.15 York – Download The Casumo App Today Handicap

He’s been a shade frustrating in 2021, but the time is surely near for Orbaan (20-1), who has fallen onto his last winning rating. He gained that aforementioned success over course and distance and there have been positive signs in 2021, even if you do need to dig a bit deeper than usual.

Running with plenty of credit on return at Newcastle, where little went right for him, three subsequent handicap runs have seen him face some stiff opposition. His most recent start came over course and distance, where he was disadvantaged by a tardy start in a race where the pace held firm.

As previously mentioned, he’s now dropped back to his last winning mark, thanks to some intervention from the handicapper. Facing a maximum field of twenty, this should be run at a strong clip and the drying ground is an obvious positive to his chances. He’s had a very quiet season, but he can end it on a high under Martin Harley.

3.35 Newmarket – bet365 Fillies’ Mile

It’s rare that I’ll look to a Group 1 races for my outsiders, but I really think Bouquet (33-1) is a huge price for John & Thady Gosden. A daughter of Dark Angel, she cost an enormous 2,200,000gns and is the first foal of Bound, a full sister to Derby winner Serpentine.

On paper, she’s bred to be something smart, and she built on a hugely promising Newmarket debut to win at Ascot last time. Travelling like a dream into that contest, she quickened clear easily and although that bare form puts her at the bottom of the Fillies’ Mile list, she should have far more to offer.

Her previous track experience is an obvious positive and Rab Havlin clearly gets on well with this filly. Although others have achieved more, she’s totally unexposed and deserves her chance at this level. The slightly easier surface is in her favour and with three places on offer, she’s my bet for the feature.

4.10 Newmarket – bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap

A horse with some very smart form in the book, I think a mark of 95 could be underestimating David O’Meara’s Juan De Montalban (28-1). He started his career with Andrew Balding, where he was steadily progressive and won a Sandown handicap on his final start for those connections.

He subsequently joined the Raffaele Biondi stable for a sole start, finishing a good second in the Italian Derby, before joining David O’Meara for his two most recent starts. Excuses can be made for both, with fourteen furlongs stretching him on return at Goodwood and a race at Ayr featuring a muddling pace.

Twelve furlongs should prove ideal for him in terms of trip and that mark of 95 won’t stop him if he returns to anything like his best. He defeated Fabilis in that aforementioned Sandown handicap and that horse subsequently came out and won over course and distance off a rating of 95. That piece of form could be telling and there’s a huge amount to like about his chances dropped into a handicap.

If you back any of our selections you can watch them live on the free Racing Post app or racingpost.com. Simply log in to one of your bookmaker accounts and click ‘Watch live’ on the racecards

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