Owen’s Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Tip – “How on earth is this horse 20-1?”

Warthog

One of the most competitive handicaps of the season, the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup has once again attracted a field packed full of quality. A Grade 3 Handicap contest, it’s raced over the 2m 4f distance on the New Course at Cheltenham.

Also known as the December Gold Cup, it’s been won by some very nice horses. Exotic Dancer, Quantitativeeasing, Poquelin and Frodon are all examples of classy winners of the prize.

Paul Nicholls leads the way with four wins in the contest and he holds the favourite in Master Tommytucker. Can he win it a record sixth time? It certainly won’t be an easy task for his 2020 challenger off top weight.

Taking a look through the market, I’ve found one horse who is an absurd price for a yard in remarkable form. You can find all the details about him below!


Huge 20/1 tip!

How on earth is Benatar 25/1 for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup? The only reason I can find for his enormous price, is the absence he needs to overcome. Granted, there has to be a small worry surrounding his 693-day absence, but his current handicap mark is too dangerous to ignore.

Moore’s charge finished third in the 2018 JLT Novices’ Chase at the Festival, last seen in the 2018/19 campaign where he looked to be developing into smart handicapper. He was third in the 2018 Silver Cup over three miles two starts ago at Cheltenham, absent since a forgivable run behind Cyrname in an Ascot handicap.

The crucial thing to note, is that he went close in that Cheltenham handicap off a seven-pound higher mark than today. He’s exceptionally well-treated on his best exploits and a return to this trip should prove ideal. He can go keenly through his races, so a strongly-run contest over 2m 4f should be his optimum.

Gary Moore has his string in incredible form at present, with 10 winners from his last 43 runners. Benatar has won fresh in the past and the form of the yard has to give a boost to his chances of returning near his peak.

If he does just that, this mark will not stop him from going close under the always popular Jamie Moore.


Key Trends to keep in mind

  • 10/10 – Won over at lest 2m 4f
  • 10/10 – Had run within the past 40 days
  • 9/10 – Top 3 finish at Cheltenham
  • 8/10 – Officially rated no higher than 149
  • 8/10 – Aged either six, seven or eight-years-old

Of the key five trends, Benatar meets all bar one of them. A win over 2m 5f confirms his stamina, while his run in the 2018 JLT gives him his top-three finish at Cheltenham. Aged eight, rated 142 and carrying just 10-11, he also meets both the rating and age trends.

The only trend he doesn’t match, is due to his prolonged absence. No horse in the last ten renewals has won the Caspian Caviar fresh, but it’s certainly not insurmountable. After all, trends are made to be broken.


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