Adrian Wall fancies her: “How on earth is this filly 12-1 on Wednesday?”

How on earth is this filly 12-1 on Wednesday? It is not too often that you come across a horse that nearly makes your spine tingle with excitement. Upon sifting through the cards, we spotted a horse running in the 7.20pm at Hamilton on Wednesday that made us stand up and take note.

After doing some research, it looks like Stuart Williams has not had a runner at the Scottish track in the last five years. However, he will send one runner on a monstrous 720-mile round trip there on Wednesday.

Williams does have a good career strike-rate at Hamilton Racecourse. He has a 31 per cent strike-rate there, 13 winners from 42 runners resulting in a level stakes profit of £24.63. Let’s take a closer look at the horse in question below.

7.20 Hamilton

Dense Star started out her career with Joseph O’Brien in Ireland. The well bred Starspangledbanner filly proved frustrating to follow in maiden company but got off the mark in style at the seventh time of asking at Navan. She won that maiden over 6f by six lengths so clearly has plenty of ability.

Looking into that maiden more closely, she beat Wood Ranger by eight lengths giving him 1lb. That horse recently won a handicap off a mark of 83 so Dense Star seems to be extremely well treated on Wednesday running off a mark of 86. This will be just her second start in handicap company.

On her first start for the Williams yard last year, she finished fourth to Suesa in a Listed race at Chantilly. Suesa is now one of the most exciting sprinters in Europe, landing a pair of French Group 3s before being sent off the 9-4 favourite for the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. She then won a Group 2 at Goodwood before finishing fourth in the Nunthorpe.

Dense Star looks well treated

With that in mind, the fact Dense Star was only beaten four lengths by Suesa would suggest that she should win this race. She was third to Happy Romance in Listed company at Chelmsford in April of this year. That horse has gone on to win a Group 3 and was only beaten a length in the Group 1 Cheveley Park last season.

Now dropping into a Class 4 handicap at Hamilton, it would be a major surprise if she didn’t win if she was at her best. She was beaten six lengths on handicap debut at Ascot last time out but had lots of excuses. Drawn in stall one, she had no chance from there. The first four home were drawn 24, 22, 20 and 23. She was also slowly away so did well to finish where she did.

This looks like a penalty kick for her on paper. It might look too good to be true but the opening price of 12-1 looks absolutely huge.

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