2.50pm Ascot Tips & Betting Preview 05/09/2015

Race Time2.50pm MeetingAscot Distance: 7f
Full Race NameFly London Southend Airport Handicap (Qualifier for the Balmoral Handicap Sponsored By Qipco) Class Two

Just the four years of race history to go on (which tells us nothing by the way), and being over the seven furlongs you would expect us to start by looking at those who do the best at this specialist distance. Unfortunately, that fails to cut the long list down very much with the majority distance winners, and over half course winners as well, but we will start with one of the other runners just to be awkward! As you would expect in these races, Richard Hannon holds a pretty strong hand and seems most likely to be represented by the highly rated Burnt Sugar, the younger of his two entries at three and the one with more room for improvement. Runner up last time out to Mubtaghaa at Newmarket over a furlong less, running on strongly and narrowly failing to catch the winner, suggesting this is just ideal for the son of Lope De Vega, yet he has already had four attempts at the trip without success which has to be a concern. Rated 108, he is clearly a very decent horse but eleven races without success has to be a big worry, though he is certainly well worthy of each way consideration, price depending as always. Brain Meehan is another trainer we have a lot of time for, and it looks as though Fox Trotter is the most likely to run of his three entries, which is now conmfirmed. A good fourth on his comeback after nine months off, we expected big things from him at Goodwood last Saturday before Jimmy Fortune found himself trapped behind a wall of horses eventually coming home in his own time less than five lengths off the winner, but back in twelfth. We suspect Jimmy felt a bit embarrassed after the race and will be hoping for the chance to make amends quickly this afternoon, and having been dropped a pound he must come here with a very decent chance granted a clear run, of course.

Looking at an outsider next, and Richard Hannon also sends Magic City here and he is a horse we are convinced will pop up at a big price some time in the future, short or long term. At his very best back in 2013 he picked up four half decent handicaps when ridden by William Twiston-Davies and then Richard Hughes, but has failed to get to the front where it matters in his last four races but has gradually slipped down the weights to his new mark of 99 which in theory gives him a chance – not for us today but likely to pull off a surprise some time soon.  Chris Wall is another trainer having a good year that he won’t want to end, with Mr Win contributing two wins and two second places in his last four runs. Ted Durcan rode the four year old to perfection last time out to pounce late and win by a neck, a tactic that has seen him put up a mere four pounds which in theory gives him chances again this afternoon though in our book, only if some of the others already mentioned fail to show on the day. To end our short list, John Best has been making hay while the sun shines with Mullionheir who keeps on being written off as he rises through the ranks – and keeps making fools of all of us. He now looks for win number six for 2015 which takes some doing for any handicapper, and it will be interesting to see how well he does with an extra three pounds here.

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