2.30pm Leicester Tips & Betting Preview 08/08/2017

The first time ever for this Class Five sprint over the six furlongs at Nottingham and a field of thirteen are all set to compete for the £3881 first prize on Good ground if the weather forecasts are accurate. Our full race preview is below plus our selection ahead of the 2.30pm at Leicester this afternoon.

IN SUMMARY: Not the easiest race to call with plenty of out of form options but at the prices it is hard to ignore BARON RUN (Each Way), who is attractively weighted down at the bottom, will be far happier over this trip, and represents the in-form Karl Burke stable. Geoff Potts could be interesting on his first run for Richard Fahey but a place may be the best he can hope for.

1 SWANTON BLUE – Top weight here for the Ed de Giles gelding who has now won two of his twenty-two starts, the latest at Salisbury over this trip on lightning fast ground. Conditions will be different here with plenty of cut in the ground still expected, though he has placed on good ground on numerous occasions so no real issues there. Put up from 64 to 70 for that win he has managed to place but not win since, and was somehow put up again after finishing ninth at Newbury in this class in July before a four length sixth of eight to Dandy Flame last time out. Dropped a pound here but still has enough on his plate for a stable with none from fourteen in the last fourteen days.

2 MAJOR CRISPIES – Moved to David O’Meara from Jeremy Gask in mid-May and has raced for his new connections five times now with plenty of placed efforts but no wins just yet. He has won three times over six furlongs but not over the seven he has been trying of late, with a three length fourth to Destination Aim at Musselburgh in late July the latest where he looked to run out of stamina, but he has been put up three pounds for that and although perhaps better suited to this trip may find himself back in the grip of the handicapper. With the stable boasting one winner from their last 70 runners others have to appeal more in this field.

3 EAST COAST LADY – West Wickham trainer William Stone may not be a household name just yet but given the right ammunition he can do the job, and has already won two races with the Kodiac mare since taking her on after she left Robert Eddery, the latest at May on the Chelmsford all-weather. Put up three pounds for that, she has been beaten twice since at Newmarket and Lingfield on ground with plenty of cut in it, and could do a little better if it dries out overnight, though that seems unlikely off the same rating for a stable without a winner in the past two weeks.

4 SOARING SPIRITS – Arrives here with a 33% success rate at the track with one win a second and an eighth from the three starts, and clearly likes the track. His last win was at Nottingham in June over this trip but an extra three pounds has stopped him twice since with a respectable third at Brighton and an eighth of nine at Yarmouth, both over seven furlongs which seems further than ideal. Same rating today but drop in trip could well see a better effort.

5 OPERATIVE – Ed de Giles second runner here and the booking of Adam Kirby looks significant. Just the one race so far this year saw a seven length ninth of eleven at Newbury over seven furlongs, but that was his first run in eleven months and he is entitled to strip that bit more race fit this afternoon. Rated 83 at his peak, he won his maiden at Redcar over this distance when rated 75 yet runs this afternoon off of 68 and if they have him back to his peak then he has a solid each way chance and at the age of four may well have a bit more to offer over the months ahead.

6 TOP OF THE BANK – Trainer Kristin Stubbs is having a quiet period with just the two (losing) runners in the last fourteen days, and it seems pretty unlikely the four-year-old will break that sequence. Four wins from twenty-six starts is acceptable, but just the one from sixteen on the turf at Thirsk when taking her maiden last year. Well beaten last time at Hamilton when a six length fifth of six in a similar contest, he was outpaced close home that day with no obvious excuses and has only been put down two pounds which may still leave him on a mark he will struggle to win from.

7 SEMANA SANTA – Jockey David Egan takes a useful five pounds off the back of the David Barron trained four-year-old though whether that will help him win his second race on his seventeenth start is open to question. With fourteen races since that win he could be described as losing his way a bit with a second in a Thirsk seller his best recent effort, and although he is tumbling down the weights he needs to show a lot more before he can be suggested in a race this competitive.

8 GEOFF POTTS – When Paul Hanagan rides for Richard Fahey they are always worth a second look and rightly so, with the stable showing a profit of close to 35 points this season, and the jockey close to 55 points, and this son of Zebedee could surprise a few. This will be his first run since leaving Jeremy Gask and he will need to show considerable improvement on his recent thirteen and a half-length fifteenth of eighteen at York but dropped in class and with the possibility of some rejuvenation for his new surroundings, he could possibly threaten the places at a price.

9 ROYS DREAM – Trainer Paul Collins is yet to have a winner on the flat this season from five attempts and is perhaps better known for his exploits at the winter game. Her last run at Redcar is best ignored as she clearly doesn’t get the seven furlongs, though her second to Hee Haw at Carlisle still seems to leave her a little short in this lineup. Jane Elliott takes five pounds off her back which she needs to get competitive but it would still be a shock were she to win her third race today, and first since changing yards from Kirstin Stubbs.

10 HARRISON STICKLE – One win from nine starts for the son of Hellvelyn but a very poor effort last time when nineteen lengths last of fifteen at Newbury over this trip after weakening quickly takes a lot of forgiving even for the most ardent supporters of the John Gallaher yard who are ticking over nicely with two wins from their last eight runners for a 25% success rate. Either that was too awful to be true or he is badly out of sorts, and in a field this competitive it doesn’t seem worth taking the risk.

11 AMBITIOUS ICARUS – The oldest in the race at the age of eight but the only runner to win last time out and thus difficult to ignore. He was held up over fir furlongs at Newcastle on the all-weather before being produced with a storming run by jockey Connor Beasley, though Liam Keniry takes the mount today. He has won once at this trip from forty-eight attempts and is clearly at his best at the minimum trip and even first-time cheekpieces seem unlikely to see him get home in front here with his opponents sure to test his limited stamina to the max.

12 MALLYMKUN – Having a quiet season so far with just the two runs starting with a promising fourth to Champagne Bob over this trip at Chepstow before a fifteen-length last of eleven at Ayr when pulling too hard to ever have any chance. Both those races were Class Six so this is a step up in class for the five-year-old who has won off thirteen ponds higher as recently as a year ago, making her well handicapped if trainer David Loughnane can possibly get her back to near to her best.

13 BARON RUN – Joint bottom weight for the Karl Burke runner who ran respectably enough when fourth to Manshood at Hamilton last month and would have an excellent chance on that form. He didn’t see out the seventh furlong here last time out in a race best forgotten, but has been dropped another two pounds for that which certainly puts him on a very handy mark this afternoon, while his trainer is going well with eleven runners from their last forty-seven runners for a 23% strike rate and over eleven points of level stakes profit. Each way material and every chance of a decent run at these weights.