Why Enable Will Win a Third Arc de Triomphe

The season feels as if it’s all been leading to this weekend, in which we find out whether John Gosden’s Enable can make history by winning a third Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in what is likely to be her final career start.

The feature of a fantastic two days’ racing from Longchamp which will be live on ITV Racing at 15.05 on Sunday, the market has her as a best-priced 8/11 to complete the treble.

Many will be attempting to take her on at the current prices. Finding an each-way alternative may well be a wise move, but from a purely objective standpoint, she cannot lose. Here’s why she’s my NAP Of The Day –

She simply doesn’t lose –

Unbeaten in her last twelve, only losing once in her fourteen race career. She’s yet to lose a race over one-mile-four, winning all seven over this trip. Raced ten times at Group One level, she’s won every single start.

Arrives here in fine form –

She beat a race-fit Magical in the Eclipse on her first run for 245 days before overcoming the highest rated horse on the planet in Crystal Ocean in the King George. Following that, her recent Yorkshire Oaks success saw her post an RPR of 128, her highest figure since winning the 2017 Arc. She beat Magical by nearly three-lengths, an improved margin of victory than when beating her at Sandown and in the Breeders Cup.

Far better prepared this year –

With her 2018 beset by injuries, she won the Arc after just one run, that on Kempton’s Polytrack. This year has been masterfully coordinated by John Gosden, and he couldn’t have wished for a much easier race at York last time, the same race she won in 2017 prior to the Arc.

Frankie Dettori –

A winner of sixteen Group Ones this year, he’s won three of the last four Arcs and has ridden the most winners in the race with six. There’s no better man for the job.

Highest rated –

She’s rated a pound superior to Ghaiyyath and six above Waldgeist, from whom she receives three pounds. Japan gets three pounds from her, however that still leaves her three-pounds clear on ratings, and Sottsass posted an RPR of 120 last time out, eight pounds below Enable. Provided she runs to form, she should have no issue in sweeping aside the field.

No Sea Of Class

A wide berth may well have cost William Haggas’ filly the race last year. She would have been a live contender to go one better this year had her life not been tragically cut short by colic. The year is a far weaker renewal without her.

Her opponents have questions to answer –

As well as being the highest rated horse in the line-up, she has a bomb proof profile, something that does not apply to her rivals.

Japan

A P O’Brien’s colt defied what appeared to be an inadequate trip to win the Juddmonte, however time has revealed that to be a weak race. Crystal Ocean may have been feeling his exertions in defeat to Enable the month previous, the third Elarqam was beaten seven-lengths in Ireland subsequently and King Of Comedy was a distant second to Benbatl at Newmarket.

Sottsass

The main domestic hope landed the French Derby in June, a race that hasn’t worked out well. The second and third haven’t been seen since, the fourth Cape Of Good Hope beaten eight-lengths in a Group Three subsequently. Whilst he enjoyed a torrid trip in the Prix Niel, he only beat the 112 rated Mohawk little more than a length. Runners from that race are o/23 over the past ten years in the Arc.

Ghaiyyath

He looked like a world beater when winning a German Group One by fourteen-lengths. He’s only had seven starts and there’s a chance he’s still improving, however it’s definitely needed. Of the eight he beat, six have raced since, all easily beaten. His rating of 127 is flattering and he appears best fresh, a beaten favourite in the Ganay three weeks after his reappearance in April.

Waldgeist

A likelable sort, he thoroughly deserves his three Group One victories. He does his best work in small fields however, winless in a double-digit field since his juvenile days, beaten six times including in last year’s Arc and in the King George this season. He does have plenty of form on slow ground, but Andre Fabre has expressed misgivings about it.

Magical

Whilst she may well lay claim to being the second best female in training, Magical has proven no match to Enable four times now, and she may well be feeling the effects of a seven-race season which started back in April. Her six other rivals, all priced at 33/1 or bigger, have mountains to climb.

History –

The record of five-year-olds doesn’t inspire confidence. There have only been four winners of that age since 1945, with 38 trying since the latest success in 2002, including Postponed in 2016.

Added to this, no horse was won three Arcs in its 99-year history. However this is a disingenuous argument, as only one horse has made it to a third Arc, with that being Treve in 2015, something that’s fresh in the memory. There’s far from a litany of broken dreams haunting Enable’s chances.

As we all know, history is there to be made, and there are few better for that job than Frankie Dettori and Enable. She wasn’t meant to win the Arc in 2018 having had just one run on Polytrack, however she duly obliged.

Barring an act of God, Enable will win a third Arc. She comes into the race with the perfect preparation and both she and connections know what’s required to get the job done. Sunday should provide the perfect closing ceremony to what has been a truly remarkable and historic racing career in which she’s won all there is to win.

Make sure to take advantage of all our tips and analysis over the weekend for Longchamp and from the racing in the UK.